9月11日风险管理日报：维持震荡，下方空间有限-20250911

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report maintains a view that the nickel and stainless steel markets will remain volatile with limited downside potential, but no specific industry investment rating is provided [1]. 2. Core View The nickel market shows a continuous volatile trend with limited downside but lacks upward momentum. Nickel ore production and shipments are stable, and domestic arrival inventories are high. The new energy sector still provides support, and the supply is relatively tight. Nickel iron prices are strong, and stainless steel also maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the impacts of the US dollar index, interest - rate cut expectations, and increased difficulties in stainless - steel exports [5]. 3. Detailed Summaries 3.1 Price and Volatility Forecast - Nickel: The predicted price range for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - Stainless Steel: The predicted price range for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.39% and a historical percentile of 0.5% [3]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - Nickel Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risks, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - Procurement Management: When there are future production procurement needs and concerns about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [3]. - Stainless Steel Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risks, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio [4]. - Procurement Management: When there are future production procurement needs and concerns about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [4]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The nickel market is volatile with limited downside but lacks upward momentum. Nickel ore production and shipments are stable, and domestic arrival inventories are high. The new energy sector still provides support, and the supply is relatively tight. Nickel iron prices are strong, and stainless steel also maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the impacts of the US dollar index, interest - rate cut expectations, and increased difficulties in stainless - steel exports [5]. 3.4 Market Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Indonesia plans to revise the HPM formula, shorten the nickel ore quota license period, there is an increased expectation of an interest - rate cut in September, and stainless steel has been de - stocking for several weeks [7]. - Negative Factors: Pure nickel inventories are high, nickel ore seasonal inventories are rising, there are still Sino - US tariff disturbances, uncertainties in EU stainless - steel import tariffs have increased, and South Korea has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates [7]. 3.5 Market Data - Nickel Disk Daily Data: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main - continuous is 120,620 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 230 yuan/ton and a 0% month - on - month change; the trading volume is 87,538 lots, an increase of 12,532 lots or 16.71% month - on - month; the open interest is 81,691 lots, an increase of 79 lots or 0.10% month - on - month; the warehouse receipt volume is 22,111 tons, a decrease of 193 tons or 0.87% month - on - month [8]. - Stainless Steel Disk Daily Data: The latest price of stainless - steel main - continuous is 12,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton and a 0% month - on - month change; the trading volume is 112,848 lots, a decrease of 2,615 lots or 2.26% month - on - month; the open interest is 128,344 lots, an increase of 5,176 lots or 4.20% month - on - month; the warehouse receipt volume is 97,554 tons, a decrease of 734 tons or 0.75% month - on - month [9]. - Inventory Data: Domestic social nickel inventories are 39,930 tons, an increase of 460 tons; LME nickel inventories are 223,152 tons, an increase of 2,058 tons; stainless - steel social inventories are 918,700 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons; nickel pig iron inventories are 29,266.5 tons, a decrease of 3,844.5 tons [10].