焦煤：库存持续去化

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint In the context of supply - demand both being weak, the fundamentals of coking coal remain good. In the short term, the bulls and bears will engage in a game between the "anti - involution" policy and weakening demand. The tight supply strongly supports the coking coal price, but the upside is limited, and it is expected to continue a high - level oscillating trend [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price - Since August, the coking coal futures price has fallen from 1328 yuan/ton to 1075 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of over 19%. The futures price decline has led to a synchronous weakening of the spot price, with mainstream varieties falling by 30 - 150 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - As of the week of September 5, the coking coal inventory continued to decline. The total coking coal inventory was 3034.82 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36.78 million tons, and significantly lower than the same period last year, a year - on - year decline of 20.70%. The decline is due to low domestic coal mine supply [3]. Supply - Domestic coal mine production has been running at a low level recently. As of September 5, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 75.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 8.26 percentage points. The daily output of raw coal and clean coal decreased by 18.55 million tons and 6.01 million tons respectively week - on - week. Although mines are gradually resuming production, the capacity utilization rate is difficult to return to the high level of the first half of the year, and domestic supply is tight [4]. - The supply of imported coking coal has increased. In July, China imported 3873.2 million tons of coking coal, a month - on - month increase of 13%. As of the week of September 5, the average daily customs clearance of the three major ports increased by 5.81% week - on - week [5]. Demand - As of the week of September 5, the combined daily coke output of all - sample independent coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased for two consecutive weeks. In the short term, there is room for improvement in coking coal demand due to the improved profitability of coking enterprises and the replenishment demand before the "National Day" holiday. However, the contradictions in the downstream steel market are accumulating, the increase in coking coal demand may be limited, and the procurement of raw materials is becoming more cautious [5].