Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - Recently, urea prices have been falling continuously, and short positions in the futures market have been increasing daily. The main reason for the futures price falling more than the spot price is the elimination of export expectations, and urea prices in the future will be more determined by the domestic market [4]. - There may be some discrepancies in inventory expectations. Some enterprises with export quotas may accelerate cargo collection at ports in September, and ports will intensify inventory clearance before October 15 [6]. - Urea is still under high - supply pressure in the large - scale production cycle, but there is still demand. Considering its unique sales attributes and potential expectation discrepancies, urea may have short - term upward momentum [7]. Summary by Related Content Price and Basis - The basis (Henan's lowest deliverable product price) was around - 110 last Tuesday and is currently - 70. The futures price has fallen more than the spot price, mainly due to the extrusion of export expectations from the futures market [4]. Inventory - After entering the second quarter, urea enterprises have slow de - stocking due to high daily production and export quota occupation, and current enterprise inventory fluctuates around 1 million tons. Port inventory has increased due to the opening of exports [6]. - Since August, the increase in enterprise inventory has mainly occurred in Inner Mongolia. Considering the low export quota of Inner Mongolian factories and the single - peak season in a year, the Northeast market should be considered when analyzing future enterprise inventory trends. Northeast urea demand is gradually starting, which may drive the de - stocking of Inner Mongolian inventory [6]. Supply and Demand - Urea is still under high - supply pressure in the large - scale production cycle, and new production capacity will be put into operation in the fourth quarter, but the time is still early and there is still demand [7].
尿素期货持仓、期货价格对比图
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-11 12:20