Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The unexpected decline in the US PPI data has temporarily alleviated market concerns about US inflation. Combined with the weakening of the US non - farm employment data, the market's expectation of multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed this year has been further strengthened, and precious metals continue to trade near historical highs. The upcoming US CPI data may affect the subsequent rate - cut amplitude and bring new fluctuations to the market [2][3]. - For various metals, their market trends are influenced by factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes. Each metal has its own trading strategy based on its specific situation. 3. Summary by Metal Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Market Review: London gold rose 0.45% to $3639.81/oz, and London silver rose 0.57% to $41.14/oz. The US dollar index rose 0.07% to 97.81, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.044%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.06% to 7.1207. In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.21% to 835.16 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.47% to 9817 yuan/kg [2]. - Important Information: The US 8 - month PPI annual rate was 2.6%, a new low since June, and the monthly rate was - 0.1%. The Trump administration's actions and the Fed's possible rate - cut probability are also important factors [2]. - Logic Analysis: The unexpected decline in PPI and the weak labor market data have strengthened the market's expectation of rate cuts, and precious metals continue to trade near historical highs. The upcoming CPI data may affect the rate - cut amplitude [3]. - Trading Strategy: For Shanghai gold, continue to hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average; for Shanghai silver, consider lightly testing long positions based on the 5 - day moving average. Adopt a bullish collar option strategy and wait and see for arbitrage [4]. Copper - Market Review: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80190 yuan/ton, up 0.64%, and the LME copper closed at $10012/ton, up 0.96%. The LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 15.50 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1010 tons to 30.87 million tons [6]. - Important Information: The US 8 - month PPI was lower than expected, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released, and Peru's copper production in July increased year - on - year [6]. - Logic Analysis: The decline in US PPI and weak employment data have increased the market's expectation of rate cuts. The supply of copper is tight due to production accidents, and the domestic refined copper production in September is expected to decline, but imports increase. The terminal consumption is weak, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [7][9]. - Trading Strategy: Consider laying out long positions after a callback, conduct inter - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [10]. Alumina - Market Review: The night - session of the alumina 2510 contract rose 10 yuan to 2915 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions decreased [12]. - Important Information: The approval of an Indian bauxite mining project was postponed, which may affect the production of an alumina plant. There were spot alumina procurement tenders by electrolytic aluminum enterprises, and the industry's average profit in August increased [12][14]. - Logic Analysis: The oversupply of alumina is more obvious in the spot market, and the prices are falling. The supply is flowing from the north to the south, and the fundamental weakness remains. However, beware of the interference of "anti - involution" sentiment on prices [15]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to run weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 40 to 20390 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [17]. - Important Information: Policy changes in the recycling of aluminum, such as tax refund and reverse invoicing compliance, have affected some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi. The industry's average cost and profit in August were calculated, and the inventory in some regions increased [17][18][19]. - Logic Analysis: Policy changes have affected the supply of scrap aluminum. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the supply is tightening. The alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [20]. - Trading Strategy: The price will fluctuate with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [21][22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The night - session of the Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract rose 45 yuan to 20830 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in different regions decreased [24]. - Important Information: The US 8 - month PPI data, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and some overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum projects had new developments [24][25]. - Logic Analysis: The market's expectation of rate cuts is rising. The fundamentals are supportive with increased aluminum - water conversion rate, decreased ingot production, and improved downstream开工率. Overseas projects' progress needs attention [26][27]. - Trading Strategy: The aluminum price will fluctuate with the external market in the short term. Consider going long after a callback. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [27]. Zinc - Market Review: The LME zinc rose 0.72% to $2887.5/ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.34% to 22245 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was average [29]. - Important Information: The CZSPT set the import zinc concentrate processing fee guidance range for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. The domestic zinc inventory increased, and a company's production data was disclosed [29][30]. - Logic Analysis: The domestic zinc smelting production may decline slightly in September, but the consumption is weak, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The LME inventory is decreasing and has a certain support for the price [31][33]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, and consider lightly laying out short positions at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [33]. Lead - Market Review: The LME lead rose 0.53% to $1988.5/ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.03% to 16845 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was weak [35]. - Important Information: The domestic lead inventory increased, and a battery manufacturer planned to expand production, and a smelter was about to resume production [35][36]. - Logic Analysis: The reduction and shutdown of domestic lead smelters due to losses and weak consumption may lead to a weak supply - demand pattern in the short term, and the price will continue to fluctuate [36]. - Trading Strategy: The Shanghai lead price may move sideways in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41]. Nickel - Market Review: The LME nickel rose $65 to $15170/ton, and the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 290 to 120780 yuan/ton. The spot premiums remained stable [39]. - Important Information: SMM predicted the increase of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore prices, and national economic and social development policies were reported [39][40]. - Logic Analysis: The weak US employment data and high supply growth rate limit the upward space of nickel prices, and the price trend is weak [40]. - Trading Strategy: The price will fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [40][42]. Stainless Steel - Market Review: The main SS2510 contract rose 20 to 12845 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported. The inventory in Foshan decreased [44]. - Important Information: A stainless - steel deep - processing project was approved, and the market was worried about recession risks despite the Fed's expected rate cut [44]. - Logic Analysis: The Fed's expected rate cut in September and weak domestic consumption growth, combined with supply pressure, are expected to keep the stainless - steel price in a wide - range fluctuation pattern [44]. - Trading Strategy: The price will fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage [45]. Industrial Silicon - Market Review: The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 1.58% to 8665 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [47][49]. - Important Information: National economic and social development policies were reported [49]. - Logic Analysis: The supply - demand of industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state. The low inventory of manufacturers and high acceptance of high - price silicon by downstream enterprises provide support for price increases. The silicon industry conference may bring good news [49]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and participate in the reverse arbitrage of the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - Market Review: The polysilicon futures main contract fell 4.40% to 52885 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of some products decreased [52]. - Important Information: National economic and social development policies were reported. The silicon wafer production in September increased, and the polysilicon production was expected to remain stable. The industry's total inventory was high [53]. - Logic Analysis: The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, but the short - term 11th contract may face a callback due to factors such as futures premium and concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation. After a callback and stabilization, long positions are recommended [54]. - Trading Strategy: Participate in long positions after a callback and stabilization, conduct reverse arbitrage of the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy wide - straddle options for profit - taking [54]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main 2511 contract fell 3620 to 70720 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of electric and industrial carbonate decreased [56]. - Important Information: Shanghai's new energy power - grid price reform policy and national fiscal policy information were reported [56][58]. - Logic Analysis: The supply - demand of lithium carbonate is still tight in the short term, and the price has technical support. However, the long - term oversupply is difficult to reverse [58]. - Trading Strategy: Look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [58]. Tin - Market Review: The night - session of the Shanghai tin 2510 contract rose 0.93% to 271990 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable. The trading volume was acceptable [60]. - Important Information: The US 8 - month PPI data, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released, and the domestic refined tin production in August decreased [60][62]. - Logic Analysis: The decline in US PPI has strengthened the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the traditional consumption season may be postponed. The LME and domestic inventories have changed [62]. - Trading Strategy: The tin price will be boosted in the short term due to the strengthened Fed rate - cut expectation. Wait and see for options [63].
有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20250911
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-11 12:17