Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint Restricted by gas supply, methanol prices are rebounding. Considering Iran's low inventory and the potential for a sharp decline in shipments due to gas - related shutdowns, short - sellers are more willing to reduce positions, and long - positions are entering the market, leading to marginal improvement in methanol. The 1 - 5 and 11 - 1 spreads show strong expectations for the 01 contract. After the low - level entry opportunity presented by the 09 contract delivery, it is recommended to hold long positions and short put options. Fundamentally, downstream demand is improving, with increased procurement and higher olefin plant operation rates. It is suggested to continue holding long positions and short put options [4]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. Methanol Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling methanol prices, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short methanol futures (MA2601) at a 25% ratio in the 2250 - 2350 range, buy put options (MA2601P2250) at a 50% ratio, and short call options (MA2601C2350) at a certain ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs [3]. - Procurement Management: When the procurement inventory is low and the company wants to purchase based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy methanol futures (MA2601) at a 50% ratio in the 2450 - 2550 range, short put options (MA2601P2300) at a 75% ratio to reduce procurement costs and lock in purchase prices [3]. Core Contradictions - Restricted by gas supply, methanol prices are rebounding. Short - sellers are reducing positions, and long - positions are entering the market. The 1 - 5 and 11 - 1 spreads show strong expectations for the 01 contract. After the 09 contract delivery, it is recommended to hold long positions and short put options. Downstream demand is improving, with increased procurement and higher olefin plant operation rates [4]. Negative Factors - This week, the arrival of foreign vessels at ports is expected to be scattered, and the port inventory of methanol is expected to increase [5].
甲醇产业风险管理日报-20250911
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-11 12:32