银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market has increased expectations of three interest rate cuts within the year due to the decline in the US PPI to 2.6% and the weakening of the US non - farm payroll data. Copper supply is facing disruptions, and the market is expected to have a pattern of "increased supply and weakened consumption" next week [3][4]. - The alumina supply - demand surplus is becoming more apparent in the spot market, with prices showing a downward trend, but there may be interference from the "anti - involution" sentiment [11][13]. - The aluminum price is supported by the increase in market interest rate cut expectations and the improvement in fundamental factors such as the decrease in ingot casting volume and the reduction in social inventory [17][21]. - The policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry have initially shown their impact, but the actual influence is still limited to local areas. The alloy ingot spot price is expected to remain stable and slightly strong [25][29]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increased social inventory and weak consumption, and the short - term price trend is not clear [34][37]. - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [41]. - The nickel market is affected by factors such as the increase in LME inventory and high supply growth, and the price has limited upward space and a weak trend [48][49]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern due to concerns about recession risks and the accumulation of supply pressure [57]. - The tin market has tight ore supply and uncertain demand recovery, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63][66]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight - balance state, and short - term long positions are recommended [70]. - The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [75][76]. - The lithium carbonate market has a stage - tight supply - demand situation, and short - term rebounds can be considered for short - selling opportunities [81]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - Market Review: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE copper 2510 contract was 80,130 yuan/ton, up 0.56%, with the index position increasing by 8,972 lots to 494,900 lots. The spot premium in Shanghai rose to 85 yuan/ton, while the premiums in Guangdong and North China decreased [2]. - Important Information: Panama is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the possible restart of its closed copper mine. As of September 11, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.26 million tons compared to Monday, but is expected to increase slightly next week [3]. - Logic Analysis: Macroeconomic factors increase interest - rate cut expectations, and the copper supply is affected by production accidents and policies, with tight supply and weakened consumption [4]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a weak oscillation [14]. 3.2 Alumina - Market Review: The price of the alumina 2511 contract increased by 16 yuan to 2,925 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [8]. - Relevant Information: India has postponed the approval of an alumina project, and some electrolytic aluminum enterprises are conducting alumina procurement tenders. The industry's average profit in August was 368 yuan/ton [9][10]. - Logic Analysis: The supply - demand surplus is obvious, and prices are falling. The flow of goods from the north to the south is increasing, and the market is in a weak state [11][13]. - Trading Strategy: After a correction, consider long positions on dips, conduct inter - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [11]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE aluminum 2510 contract was 20,915 yuan/ton, up 1,305 yuan, with the position increasing by 27,022 lots to 569,300 lots. Spot prices in various regions increased [17]. - Relevant Information: The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, and China's CPI and PPI data were released. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased, and some overseas projects are progressing [17][18]. - Trading Logic: The market's interest - rate cut expectations support the price, and the improvement in fundamentals such as inventory reduction drives the price up [21]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be considered on dips. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [22][23]. 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The price of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 125 yuan to 20,475 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 2,314 lots to 14,012 lots. Spot prices remained stable [25]. - Relevant Information: Policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry are affecting the market, the industry's profit in August was 104 yuan/ton, and the futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [25][26][28]. - Trading Logic: Policy changes, tight raw material supply, and increasing downstream demand support the price, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [29]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate strongly with aluminum, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [30][31]. 3.5 Zinc - Market Review: The SHFE zinc 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 22,250 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 970 lots to 222,700 lots. The spot market trading was dull [33]. - Relevant Information: The domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and the CZSPT released the reference range for the import zinc concentrate processing fee [34]. - Logic Analysis: The production of smelters may decline slightly in September, consumption is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [35][37]. - Trading Strategy: Temporarily wait and see, and consider short positions on rallies [38]. 3.6 Lead - Market Review: The SHFE lead 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 742 lots to 89,300 lots. The spot market had weak demand [39]. - Relevant Information: The social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly [40]. - Logic Analysis: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [41]. - Trading Strategy: The price may move sideways in the short term [42]. 3.7 Nickel - Market Review: The SHFE nickel main contract NI2510 rose 130 yuan to 120,620 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 5,412 lots. The premiums of different nickel products changed [43][44]. - Relevant Information: SMM expects the Indonesian domestic trade ore price to rise slightly in the second half of September [49]. - Logic Analysis: The increase in LME inventory and high supply growth limit the upward space of the price [49]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [50][51][52]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - Market Review: The main SS2510 contract fell 30 yuan to 12,795 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 1,990 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported [54]. - Relevant Information: The stainless - steel inventory in Foshan decreased, and a new project's environmental impact report was being approved [55]. - Logic Analysis: Concerns about recession risks and supply pressure lead to a wide - range oscillation pattern [57]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage [58][59]. 3.9 Tin - Market Review: The main SHFE tin 2510 contract closed at 271,260 yuan/ton, up 1,780 yuan/ton or 0.66%, and the position decreased by 532 lots to 57,067 lots. The spot price rose, but the trading was slow [61]. - Relevant Information: US and Chinese economic data were released, and the domestic tin production in August decreased [62]. - Logic Analysis: The ore supply is tight, the demand recovery is uncertain, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63]. - Trading Strategy: The price may oscillate weakly, and temporarily wait and see for options [66][67]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - Market Review: Affected by market rumors, the industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated strongly, closing at 8,740 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price generally rose 100 yuan/ton [68][69]. - Relevant Information: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [70]. - Comprehensive Analysis: The market is in a tight - balance state, and the price has an upward trend [70]. - Strategy: Hold long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and consider reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts [71]. 3.11 Polysilicon - Market Review: The polysilicon futures main contract rose slightly, closing at 53,710 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price remained stable [74]. - Relevant Information: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released, and the demand and supply situation of polysilicon in September was analyzed [75]. - Comprehensive Analysis: The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [76]. - Strategy: Participate in light long positions with timely stop - loss, conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy wide - straddle options for profit - taking [77]. 3.12 Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main 2511 contract rose 880 yuan to 71,000 yuan/ton, the index position decreased by 17,672 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 290 tons to 38,391 tons. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased [78]. - Relevant Information: Shanghai's new energy上网电价 reform notice was issued, and the national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [79][80]. - Logic Analysis: The supply - demand situation is stage - tight, and the price may have a short - term rebound [81]. - Trading Strategy: Look for short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds, temporarily wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [80][81][83].