Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-11 13:13Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the innovative drug sector, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [5][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the long-term investment value of Chinese innovative drugs, highlighting three main supporting logics: innovation upgrades, profitability inflection points, and normalization of outbound business development (BD) [5]. - Chinese biotech companies are demonstrating significant capabilities in global innovation, with notable products emerging in the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody and EGFR/c-MET dual antibody ADC categories [5]. - Leading biotech firms like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics are projected to reach profitability in 2025, suggesting a sustained high growth trajectory for the sector [5]. - The total value of license-out agreements from mainland China to Europe and the US has reached $94.3 billion as of September 2025, significantly surpassing the $51.9 billion recorded for the entirety of 2024 [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the potential impact of a proposed US government draft that aims to limit American pharmaceutical companies from acquiring experimental drugs from China, although the likelihood of this draft being implemented is considered low [5]. - The report argues that even if the US tightens regulations, Chinese biotech can still pursue collaborations with European firms and establish overseas companies to navigate these restrictions [5]. Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the pharmaceutical and biotech sector, detailing market capitalization, earnings per share (EPS) projections, and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024 to 2027 [6]. - Notable companies mentioned include: - Hengrui Medicine with a market cap of 453.3 billion yuan and a projected PE ratio of 68.3 for 2024 [6]. - BeiGene with a market cap of 436.5 billion yuan, expected to turn profitable by 2026 [6]. - Innovent Biologics and other firms are also highlighted for their growth potential and market performance [6].