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电力设备新能源行业点评:全国首个机制电价竞价结果出炉,山东省风电竞价结果较好
Guoxin Securities·2025-09-11 14:29

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric power equipment and new energy industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][4][17] Core Insights - The first mechanism electricity price bidding results have been released, with favorable outcomes for wind power in Shandong Province. The mechanism electricity price for photovoltaic is 0.225 yuan/kWh, with an accepted electricity volume of 1.248 billion kWh, and for wind power, it is 0.319 yuan/kWh, with an accepted electricity volume of 5.967 billion kWh. The mechanism electricity price for wind power is significantly above the bidding lower limit and close to the upper limit, indicating a favorable investment return for wind power projects [3][5][7][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The bidding results show that the mechanism electricity price for photovoltaic projects is 0.225 yuan/kWh, with a mechanism electricity volume ratio of 80%, while for wind power, it is 0.319 yuan/kWh, with a mechanism electricity volume ratio of 70%. The total scale of accepted projects for photovoltaic is 1.27 GW, and for wind power, it is 3.59 GW [5][8]. Investment Recommendations - Based on the bidding results and feedback from the industry chain, it is expected that the overall scale of domestic new energy development will remain stable during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a greater focus on wind power compared to the previous period. This is favorable for companies in the wind power industry chain. Recommended companies to watch include Goldwind Technology, SANY Renewable Energy, Yunda Co., and Times New Material [4][11]. Financial Projections - The profit forecasts for related companies are as follows: Goldwind Technology (2024A: 1.86 billion yuan, 2025E: 2.70 billion yuan, 2026E: 3.67 billion yuan), SANY Renewable Energy (2024A: 1.81 billion yuan, 2025E: 2.13 billion yuan, 2026E: 2.68 billion yuan), Yunda Co. (2024A: 460 million yuan, 2025E: 680 million yuan, 2026E: 990 million yuan), and Times New Material (2024A: 440 million yuan, 2025E: 650 million yuan, 2026E: 840 million yuan) [13].