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策略日报:回马枪-20250911
Tai Ping Yang Zheng Quan·2025-09-11 15:22

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is expected to challenge new lows, with a target set for the low point of September 30, 2024 [4][9][16] - The A-share market shows a strong upward trend, with the North Star 50 index leading the way, while sectors like chemicals, agriculture, steel, and photovoltaics remain at historical lows, providing a higher margin of safety [5][19][20] - The semiconductor and innovative drug sectors have reached their adjustment space, and it is suggested to hold positions for potential gains [5][19] Group 2 - The report highlights that the U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, which supports the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, paving the way for a potential rate cut in September [24][30] - The report notes that the offshore RMB has returned to an upward trend against the USD, with a recommendation to short the dollar while considering investments in A-shares and precious metals [30][31] - The commodity market is advised to adopt a bullish mindset, with the Wenhua Commodity Index showing an increase, particularly in coal and new energy sectors [7][35] Group 3 - Domestic policies are shifting towards supporting foreign trade enterprises, with the Ministry of Commerce emphasizing the need to stabilize the foreign trade base [42] - The report mentions that the U.S. PPI data fell short of expectations, which could facilitate further rate cuts [46] - The automotive industry in China has seen production and sales exceed 20 million units for the first time in 2025, with significant growth in the new energy vehicle sector [46]