美国8月CPI点评：美联储或将开启连续降息

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. CPI for August 2025 increased by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations[2] - Core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations[2] Inflation Trends - Overall inflation has rebounded, while core inflation remains stable, indicating a clearer impact from tariffs on U.S. inflation[3] - Energy inflation turned positive with a 0.2% year-on-year increase, while food prices rose by 3.2%, up 0.3 percentage points from July[3][18] - Core goods inflation increased by 0.37 percentage points to 1.54% year-on-year, while core services saw a slight decline of about 0.05 percentage points[3][21] Future Outlook - The rebound in inflation may be temporary, with core inflation expected to trend downward due to high base effects and stable tariff policies[3][33] - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points in September 2025, with a total of three rate cuts anticipated for the year[5][44] Market Implications - The Fed's economic forecasts and rate cut paths will significantly influence asset prices, especially in light of labor market risks and inflation expectations[5][43] - If the Fed raises inflation forecasts while lowering economic growth expectations, market risk appetite may be suppressed, affecting short-term Treasury yields[5][43]