五矿期货能源化工日报-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, believing that the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2]. - For methanol, it is expected that the fundamentals will gradually improve, and the market should pay attention to potential long - position opportunities and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4]. - For urea, with weak demand and limited export support, the price is expected to move in a range at a low - valuation level. It is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [6]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, while the short - term view is neutral. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trades [12]. - For PVC, given the situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation in the domestic market, it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies, but also beware of short - covering rallies [14]. - For benzene ethylene, in the long term, the BZN spread may recover. When the inventory reaches the inflection point of destocking, the price may rebound. It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long term, and the cost has some support [19]. - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [20]. - For PX, with the terminal and polyester data gradually improving, it is recommended to follow the crude oil and go long at low prices when the peak season arrives [22][23]. - For PTA, it is recommended to follow PX and go long at low prices after the terminal performance improves in the peak season [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation is supported by low arrivals, but there is downward pressure on the valuation in the medium term [25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Market Quotes: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 3.10 yuan/barrel, or 0.64%, at 489.20 yuan/barrel [1]. - Core View: The geopolitical premium has disappeared, and OPEC's production increase is minimal. The view that OPEC is conducting a stress test on the market is maintained. The oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside [2]. 3.2 Methanol - Market Quotes: On September 11, the 01 contract fell 20 yuan/ton to 2387 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 102 [4]. - Fundamentals: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is weak, but most of the negative factors have been priced in. The enterprise profit is good, overseas production is at a high level, and arrivals are increasing, so the supply is sufficient. The port MTO profit is good year - on - year, and there is an expectation of marginal improvement in demand. The port inventory has reached a new high, while the inland enterprise inventory is low year - on - year. The fundamentals are expected to improve gradually [4]. - Strategy: Pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4]. 3.3 Urea - Market Quotes: On September 11, the 01 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 1671 yuan/ton, the spot price was stable, and the basis was - 11 [6]. - Fundamentals: The domestic enterprise inventory is slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. The domestic agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the compound fertilizer production has rebounded but is still in the seasonal decline stage. The demand is weak, and export support is limited [6]. - Strategy: The price is expected to move in a range at a low - valuation level. It is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [6]. 3.4 Rubber - Market Quotes: NR and RU fluctuated weakly [9]. - Fundamentals: The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 5 - 10 days has decreased, reducing the positive factors. The long - position view is based on seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while the short - position view is due to weak demand, uncertain macro - expectations, and the possibility that supply benefits may be less than expected. The all - steel tire production rate has increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, while the export expectation has declined. The natural rubber social inventory in China has decreased [10][11]. - Strategy: The medium - term view is bullish, while the short - term view is neutral. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trades [12]. 3.5 PVC - Market Quotes: The PVC01 contract rose 31 yuan to 4888 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 208 (- 1) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 300 (+2) yuan/ton [14]. - Fundamentals: The cost of calcium carbide is stable, and the overall PVC production rate has increased. The downstream production rate has also increased slightly. The enterprise comprehensive profit is at a high level this year, the valuation pressure is large, the maintenance volume is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic downstream production is at a five - year low, and the export expectation has weakened after the Indian anti - dumping tax rate is determined [14]. - Strategy: Given the situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation in the domestic market, it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies, but also beware of short - covering rallies [14]. 3.6 Benzene Ethylene - Market Quotes: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened. The BZN spread is at a low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space [16][17]. - Fundamentals: The cost of pure benzene production is stable, and the supply is still abundant. The production rate of benzene ethylene has been increasing, and the port inventory has been decreasing significantly. The demand of the three S industries has declined. In the long term, the BZN spread may recover, and the price may rebound when the inventory reaches the inflection point of destocking [17]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [17]. 3.7 Polyethylene - Market Quotes: The futures price fell [19]. - Fundamentals: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost has some support. The spot price is stable, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. The remaining planned production capacity is 400,000 tons, the overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the demand for agricultural film raw materials has started to stock up, with the overall production rate stabilizing at a low level [19]. - Outlook: The price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long term [19]. 3.8 Polypropylene - Market Quotes: The futures price fell [20]. - Fundamentals: The remaining planned production capacity is 1.45 million tons, with relatively high pressure. The downstream production rate has rebounded seasonally from a low level. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [20]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [20]. 3.9 PX - Market Quotes: The PX11 contract rose 8 yuan to 6778 yuan, the PX CFR was flat at 838 US dollars, the basis was 83 (- 11) yuan, and the 11 - 1 spread was 60 (+8) yuan [22]. - Fundamentals: The PX production rate is at a high level, the short - term unexpected maintenance of downstream PTA is relatively high, and the overall production rate center is low. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, the inventory accumulation of PX is not significant, and the terminal and polyester data are gradually improving. The valuation has limited downward space, but there is no strong upward driving force for PXN currently [22]. - Strategy: With the terminal and polyester data gradually improving, it is recommended to follow the crude oil and go long at low prices when the peak season arrives [22][23]. 3.10 PTA - Market Quotes: The PTA01 contract fell 10 yuan to 4688 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 4620 yuan, the basis was - 70 (- 7) yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 32 (- 4) yuan [24]. - Fundamentals: The PTA production rate has increased, and the downstream production rate has also increased slightly. The terminal production rate is flat. The social inventory has decreased. The spot processing fee and the on - market processing fee have both decreased. The unexpected maintenance volume on the supply side has increased, and the inventory accumulation pattern has changed to destocking, but the processing fee is under pressure. The polyester fiber inventory pressure on the demand side is low, and the downstream and terminal production has improved, but the terminal recovery speed is slow [24]. - Strategy: It is recommended to follow PX and go long at low prices after the terminal performance improves in the peak season [24]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The EG01 contract fell 17 yuan to 4302 yuan, the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 4414 yuan, the basis was 106 (- 11) yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 48 (- 11) yuan [25]. - Fundamentals: The production rate of ethylene glycol has increased, and the downstream production rate has also increased slightly. The terminal production rate is flat. The import arrival forecast is 930,000 tons, and the port inventory has increased. The cost of ethylene is stable, and the coal price has increased. The domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is expected to be low in the short term due to low arrivals, but it will turn to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter as imports arrive in a concentrated manner and the domestic production rate is expected to remain high [25]. - Valuation Outlook: The short - term valuation is supported by low arrivals, but there is downward pressure on the valuation in the medium term [25].