宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250912

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view of rebar 2601 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is also weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that industrial contradictions are accumulating, and steel prices are seeking the bottom weakly [2]. - The rebar market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand. The weekly output of rebar continues to decline due to production conversion and short - process steel mill production cuts, but the sustainability of production cuts during the peak season needs to be tracked, and the high inventory does not relieve the supply pressure. Meanwhile, rebar demand remains weak, with high - frequency indicators running at a low level and no improvement in downstream industries. The peak - season performance is still poor, continuously pressuring steel prices. With cost increase and peak - season expectations as the only positives, steel prices are expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. The view reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the accumulation of industrial contradictions and the steel price's weak bottom - seeking [2]. Market Driving Logic - The rebar market has a pattern of weak supply and demand. Production conversion and short - process steel mill production cuts lead to a continuous decline in weekly rebar output, but the sustainability of production cuts during the peak season is uncertain, and high inventory does not ease supply pressure. Demand remains weak, with high - frequency indicators at a low level and no improvement in downstream industries. The poor peak - season performance pressures steel prices. With cost increase and peak - season expectations as positives, steel prices are expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and demand performance should be monitored [3]