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宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250912
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-09-12 01:09

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of Iron Ore 2601 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA10 line. The core logic is that the demand has good resilience and the ore price is at a high level [2]. - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. After the end of production restrictions, the terminal consumption of ore has increased significantly, and with the approaching holiday, there is a restocking expectation, so the demand has good resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the contradictions in the finished steel market are accumulating, the profit is shrinking, and the incremental space is limited. At the same time, the arrival at domestic ports has decreased, the overseas miners' shipments have also dropped significantly, the supply of foreign ore has shrunk in the short term, and the supply of domestic ore is weak. Overall, the fundamentals are acceptable, supporting the high - level operation of the ore price, but the upward movement of the high - valued ore price is restricted. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias. The reference is to pay attention to the support at the MA10 line, and the core logic is the good demand resilience and high - level ore price [2]. Market Driving Logic - The demand side: After the end of production restrictions, the terminal consumption of ore has increased significantly, and with the approaching holiday, there is a restocking expectation, so the demand has good resilience, which supports the ore price. But the contradictions in the finished steel market are accumulating, the profit is shrinking, and the incremental space is limited [3]. - The supply side: The arrival at domestic ports has decreased, the overseas miners' shipments have dropped significantly, the supply of foreign ore has shrunk in the short term, and the supply of domestic ore is weak, resulting in relatively low ore supply [3]. - Overall: The fundamentals are acceptable, supporting the high - level operation of the ore price, but the upward movement of the high - valued ore price is restricted. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [3].