宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250912

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to show short - term strength with short - term and medium - term upward trends and an intraday trend of being oscillating and slightly stronger. The main reasons are the approaching US interest rate cut and strong upward momentum after breaking through the oscillation range [1][3]. - Copper is also predicted to be short - term strong, with short - term and medium - term upward trends and an intraday trend of being oscillating and slightly stronger. This is due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the approaching industrial peak season, and strong upward momentum with increasing positions [1][5]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - Time - cycle Views: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: rising; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger [1][3]. - Reference View: Short - term strength [1][3]. - Core Logic: This week, the gold price first rose and then fell. The main contract of Shanghai gold oscillated around the 830 - yuan mark last night. The recent AI boom has led to new highs in the US Nasdaq Index and China's ChiNext Index, increasing market risk appetite and being negative for the gold price. In the long run, the gold price has been rising since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, breaking through the high of the oscillation range since the second quarter of this year. The short - term upward momentum is strong, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [3]. Copper (CU) - Time - cycle Views: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: rising; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger [1][5]. - Reference View: Short - term strength [1][5]. - Core Logic: Last night, the copper price continued to rise with increasing positions, and the main contract price was approaching the highs in July and September. At the macro level, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is positive for the copper price. At the industrial level, the support from the domestic industrial peak season for the futures price is continuously strengthening. With a strong domestic and weak overseas macro situation and the industry entering the peak season, the futures price is expected to be strong. Technically, the futures price has been rising with increasing positions, and the upward momentum is strong. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the previous highs [5].