Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European Line) is under pressure. The 2510 contract is currently pricing in the downward trend of freight rates in the first half of October and the potential upward risk in the second half, and is short - term weak. The 2512 contract should not be over - estimated due to potential negative factors. The 2602 contract may not show a discount to the 12 contract in years with a late Spring Festival [10][13] - This week, consider taking profits on the 2510 contract at low prices. In the medium - to - long - term, consider going long on the 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 calendar spreads [14] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main 2510 contract of the container shipping index (European Line) closed at 1,203.8 points, down 5.28%, with an increase of 2,187 lots in positions; the second - main 2512 contract closed at 1,609.1 points, down 4.07%, with an increase of 1,417 lots in positions [1][10] Freight Rates - The 38 - week freight rate center has further declined to around $1,650/FEU. Conservatively estimated, the cumulative decline in the 39th and 40th weeks is $100/FEU, and the center may fall to around $1,550/FEU. Different alliances have different pricing and adjustment situations [11] Supply - Side Fundamentals - In October, the weekly average capacity has been slightly revised down from 276,000 TEU/week to 267,000 TEU/week. The year - on - year growth rate of capacity in October is 1.1%, a significant decline compared to July - September. The suspension of sailings by shipping companies during the National Day holiday is relatively strong. In November, there are 6 pending voyages, 3 blank sailings, and 1 additional sailing. Without considering the pending voyages, the current weekly average capacity is 302,000 TEU/week [12] Contract Analysis - The 2510 contract may mainly reflect the freight rate quotes from the 40th to 42nd weeks. The current price may have priced in the downward trend of freight rates in the first half of October and the potential upward risk in the second half, and is short - term weak. The 2512 contract should not be over - estimated due to potential negative factors such as the late Spring Festival in 2026 and increasing over - capacity pressure. The 2602 contract may not show a discount to the 12 contract in years with a late Spring Festival [13] Strategy - This week, consider taking profits on the 2510 contract at low prices. In the medium - to - long - term, consider going long on the 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 calendar spreads [14] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]
集运指数（欧线）：承压运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-12 01:22