国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250912

Report Information - Report Date: September 12, 2025 [1][17][21][26][31][33][38] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products [2] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - Palm Oil: Supported by US soybean oil, focus on low - buying strategies [3][5] - Soybean Oil: Stabilized as US soybeans closed higher [3][5] - Soybean Meal: Rebounded following US soybeans, awaiting USDA supply - demand report [3][14] - Soybean No.1: Rebounded and fluctuated [3][14] - Corn: Traded in a range [17] - Sugar: Consolidated in a narrow range [21] - Cotton: Monitor the listing of new cotton [26] - Eggs: Continued trading range [31] - Hogs: Spot market was weak, while policy was strong [33] - Peanuts: Monitor the listing of new peanuts [38] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: Palm oil futures closed at 9,330 yuan/ton (day session) with a 0.93% increase, and 9,348 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.19% increase; soybean oil futures closed at 8,336 yuan/ton (day session) with a 0.97% increase, and 8,326 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.12% decrease [5] - News: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 3.17% month - on - month; analysts expect Malaysian palm oil inventory in September to increase by 6% to 2.3 million tons due to weak exports and domestic demand [6][7] - Trend Intensity: Neutral (0) [13] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Fundamentals: DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 3,911 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.13% decrease, and 3,957 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.79% increase; DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,066 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.33% decrease, and 3,090 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.49% increase [14] - News: On September 11, CBOT soybeans closed higher as traders adjusted positions before the USDA supply - demand report; analysts expect a slight decrease in US soybean yield but a large overall production [14][16] - Trend Intensity: Slightly bullish (+1) [16] Corn - Fundamentals: C2511 closed at 2,202 yuan/ton (day session) with a 0.14% increase, and 2,201 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.05% decrease; C2601 closed at 2,172 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.09% decrease, and 2,169 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.14% decrease [18] - News: Northern corn port prices were stable, while North China corn prices were slightly down [19] - Trend Intensity: Neutral (0) [20] Sugar - Fundamentals: Raw sugar price was 16.47 cents/pound, mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, and futures main contract price was 5,556 yuan/ton [21] - News: Indian monsoon rainfall increased; Brazilian sugar exports decreased; Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast [21] - Trend Intensity: Neutral (0) [24] Cotton - Fundamentals: CF2601 closed at 13,835 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.14% decrease, and 13,830 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.04% decrease; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 66.74 cents/pound with a 0.03% increase [26] - News: Cotton spot trading was light; US cotton exports decreased [27][28] - Trend Intensity: Neutral (0) [30] Eggs - Fundamentals: Egg 2510 closed at 3,043 yuan/500 kg with a 0.36% increase; Egg 2601 closed at 3,349 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.71% decrease [31] - Trend Intensity: Neutral (0) [31] Hogs - Fundamentals: Henan spot price was 13,530 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price was 13,400 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price was 14,240 yuan/ton; Futures contracts showed different price changes [34] - Market Logic: Spot prices may decline further due to large supply in September - October; short - term LH2511 support is 12,500 yuan/ton, and resistance is 13,500 yuan/ton [36] - Trend Intensity: Neutral (0) [35] Peanuts - Fundamentals: Liaoning 308 general peanuts were priced at 8,200 yuan/ton; Henan Baisha general peanuts were priced at 8,360 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan decrease [38] - News: New peanuts in some areas are expected to be listed soon; trading volume was affected by rainfall [39] - Trend Intensity: Neutral (0) [40]