国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250912

Report Overview - Report Date: September 12, 2025 [1][4] - Report Provider: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Report Focus: Black Series Commodities Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report presents individual outlooks for various black series commodities, indicating that most are expected to experience wide - ranging fluctuations. Specifically, iron ore and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly, while rebar has relatively weak demand and will have wide - ranging fluctuations. Hot - rolled coils have good demand resilience and will also have wide - ranging fluctuations. Ferro - silicon, silico - manganese, coke, and coking coal are all expected to have wide - ranging fluctuations with repeated expectations [2][9][10][13][17][18][20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Market Outlook: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][7] - Fundamental Data: The previous day's closing price was 795.5 yuan/ton, down 9.5 yuan/ton or 1.18%. Open interest decreased by 5,590 hands to 538,976 hands. Imported ore prices generally declined, with PB (61.5%) down 9 yuan/ton to 790 yuan/ton. Some spreads changed, such as the basis (12601, against Super Special) increasing by 4 yuan/ton to 117.7 yuan/ton [5]. - Macro and Industry News: US consumer price index in August increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The trend strength is 0 (neutral) [6]. Rebar - Market Outlook: Relatively weak demand, wide - ranging fluctuations [9] - Fundamental Data: The RB2510 contract closed at 3,006 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.63%. Trading volume was 178,828 hands, and open interest decreased by 14,764 hands to 582,868 hands. Spot prices in major cities decreased, with Shanghai down 10 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton [10]. - Macro and Industry News: According to September 11 steel union weekly data, rebar production decreased by 6.75 tons, inventory increased by 13.86 tons, and apparent demand decreased by 4 tons. The trend strength is 0 (neutral) [11][12]. Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Outlook: Good demand resilience, wide - ranging fluctuations [10] - Fundamental Data: The HC2510 contract closed at 3,372 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.06%. Trading volume was 83,435 hands, and open interest decreased by 20,747 hands to 390,112 hands. Spot prices in major cities remained stable. The basis (HC2510) increased by 5 yuan/ton to 8 yuan/ton [10]. - Macro and Industry News: According to September 11 steel union weekly data, hot - rolled coil production increased by 10.9 tons, inventory decreased by 1.02 tons, and apparent demand increased by 18.85 tons. The trend strength is 0 (neutral) [11][12]. Ferro - silicon and Silico - manganese - Market Outlook: Wide - ranging fluctuations [13] - Fundamental Data: For ferro - silicon, the 2511 contract closed at 5626 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. For silico - manganese, the 2511 contract closed at 5826 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. Spot prices and various spreads also showed different changes [13]. - Macro and Industry News: On September 11, ferro - silicon and silico - manganese prices in different regions were reported. The trend strength for both is 0 (neutral) [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - Market Outlook: Repeated expectations, wide - ranging fluctuations [17][18] - Fundamental Data: The JM2601 coking coal contract closed at 1141.5 yuan/ton, up 24.5 yuan/ton or 2.2%. The J2601 coke contract closed at 1630 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton or 1.7%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke had different changes, and some basis and spreads also changed [18]. - Macro and Industry News: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026". The trend strength for both is 0 (neutral) [18]. Logs - Market Outlook: Fluctuate repeatedly [20] - Fundamental Data: Different contracts' closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests showed various changes. For example, the 2509 contract's closing price was 766.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.8%. Spot prices in most regions remained stable [21]. - Macro and Industry News: China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The trend strength is 0 (neutral) [23].