本刊由金信期货研究院撰写：金信期货日刊-20250912

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: September 12, 2025 [1] - Report issuer: GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD [2] Group 2: Hotspot Focus - Coking Coal - Price movement: On September 11, 2025, coking coal futures closed up 26.0 yuan, a 2.33% increase, at 1141 yuan [2] - Fundamental situation: Tighter safety inspections in Shanxi may limit production release, but steel mill profits have limited recovery, hot metal production is at a medium - low level, coke demand is insufficient, and coking plants have high inventories and low procurement willingness [2] - News situation: Coal mine supply disruptions may last until around National Day, downstream procurement of coking coal and coke has slowed, and speculative demand has weakened. Overall, carbon element supply is still abundant, with an expected recovery in downstream hot metal [3] - Investment suggestion: Coking coal and coke prices are greatly disturbed by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, with high volatility. Seize the opportunity of an oscillating upward trend [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - Market situation: Consumption policies continue to take effect, with the core CPI up 0.9% year - on - year in August. Six departments are jointly rectifying the "black public relations" and "口水战" chaos in the auto industry. The A - share market opened slightly lower and then rose rapidly, closing with a large positive line [7][8] - Investment suggestion: It is expected that the market will continue to oscillate upward in the short term [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold - Market situation: The US non - farm payrolls data in August still fell short of expectations, increasing the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, which is positive for gold. The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient [12] - Investment suggestion: Gold prices are expected to continue rising in the short term [12] Group 5: Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Market situation: Supply shipments are stable. Steel mills are showing signs of resuming production, and hot metal is expected to remain at a high level. As the National Day approaches in the middle and late months, steel mills may start restocking [16] - Investment suggestion: Restocking may support raw materials. Technically, it is still in a high - level wide - range oscillation range, and pay attention to the breakthrough situation [15] Group 6: Technical Analysis - Glass - Market situation: Daily melting is basically stable, factory inventories continue to accumulate, and the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. Pay attention to restocking as the peak season approaches [20] - Investment suggestion: Technically, it had a narrow - range consolidation today. It can be viewed with a low - buying strategy [19] Group 7: Technical Analysis - Palm Oil - Market situation: The oil market has had a large cumulative increase recently. With rising inventory pressure and lack of demand support, the motivation for further chasing up has declined, and the pressure for profit - taking has increased [23] - Investment suggestion: Treat it with an oscillating downward view [23] Group 8: Technical Analysis - Pulp - Market situation: Pulp prices in Shandong remained stable today. Port inventories started to decline slightly and are at a medium - high level. There are expectations of a boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet [26] - Investment suggestion: Maintain the view of low - level oscillation and suggest short - term long positions [26]