申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL、PP）-20250912

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are operating weakly. The spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply - demand fundamentals. This summer's maintenance is in balance. Currently, PE inventory is being slowly digested, and PP inventory has also improved. However, the futures market is in a process of gradually stopping the decline. In the future, attention should be paid to the support of downstream stocking for raw materials [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - LL Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7209, 7220, and 7145 respectively, with price drops of -17, -17, and -31, and percentage drops of -0.24%, -0.23%, and -0.43%. The trading volumes were 217976, 5427, and 29, and the open interests were 533469, 34922, and 8028, with open interest changes of 16282, 1284, and -25. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -11, 75, and -64 (current values) compared to -11, 61, and -50 (previous values) [2]. - PP Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6939, 6961, and 6805 respectively, with price drops of -9, -10, and -49, and percentage drops of -0.13%, -0.14%, and -0.71%. The trading volumes were 197721, 6276, and 190, and the open interests were 624199, 53554, and 2184, with open interest changes of 9293, 1437, and -135. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -22, 156, and -134 (current values) compared to -23, 117, and -94 (previous values) [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2389 yuan/ton, 6700 yuan/ton, 601 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to 2408 yuan/ton, 6675 yuan/ton, 598 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton (previous values) [2]. - Spot Market (Mid - stream): The current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges of PP in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton, 6700 - 6950 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7000 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Market News - On Thursday (September 11), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.37 per barrel, down $1.30 or 2.04% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.21 - $63.80. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.37 per barrel, down $1.12 or 1.66% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.15 - $67.62 [2].