国泰君安期货所长早读-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US inflation data in August was basically in line with expectations, with a slight rebound in inflation, but the pressure did not reach the level requiring urgent response. The market generally expected the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting, and there were also expectations of three interest rate cuts by the end of the year due to the weakening labor market [7]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil were expected to remain weak in the short term due to the decline in crude oil prices and bearish fundamentals [9]. - The Freight Index (European Line) was under pressure. The 2510 contract might be under short - term pressure, the 2512 contract should be treated with a wide - range shock mindset, and for the 2602 contract, long - term strategies such as long 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 spreads could be considered [10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals - Gold and Silver: Gold was affected by the downward revision of non - farm employment, and the gold - silver ratio of silver was rising. The trend intensities of both were 0 [14][19][24]. - Copper: With the decline of the US dollar, copper prices rose. The trend intensity was 1 [14][26][28]. - Zinc: Inventory accumulation continued, and the trend intensity was 0 [14][29][31]. - Lead: Prices fluctuated, and the trend intensity was 0 [14][32]. - Tin: Prices fluctuated within a range, and the trend intensity was 0 [14][34][38]. - Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy: Aluminum was expected to be slightly bullish in a volatile market, alumina was in a weak operation, and cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of all were 0 [14][39][41]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel was in a narrow - range fluctuation, and stainless steel prices might fluctuate due to the game between reality and expectations. The trend intensities of both were 0 [14][42][48]. - Carbonate Lithium: Production continued to recover, and prices were in a weak - side fluctuation. The trend intensity was - 1 [14][49][53]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the information from the Inner Mongolia meeting. The trend intensity was 0 [14][54][57]. - Polysilicon: Market sentiment fermented again, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt registration. The trend intensity was 1 [14][55][57]. - Iron Ore: Prices fluctuated repeatedly, and the trend intensity was 0 [14][59][60]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Rebar demand was relatively weak, and prices fluctuated widely; hot - rolled coil demand was resilient, and prices also fluctuated widely. The trend intensities of both were 0 [14][62][65]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Both were in wide - range fluctuations, and the trend intensities of both were 0 [14][66][68]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Expectations were volatile, and prices fluctuated widely. The trend intensities of both were 0 [14][70][71]. 3.3 Others - Log: Prices fluctuated repeatedly [14][73]. - Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Affected by the decline in crude oil prices and bearish fundamentals, they were expected to remain weak in the short term [9]. - Freight Index (European Line): Under pressure, different contracts had different trends and corresponding strategies [10].