申万期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250912

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - The probability of the current ENSO neutral climate transitioning to La Nina climate between October and December 2025 has been raised to 71% [2]. - From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit decreased by 2.70% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.09% month - on - month, and production decreased by 3.17% month - on - month [2]. - Protein meal: Night - session soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed higher. Despite uncertainties in US soybean exports due to Sino - US trade tariffs, lower planting area and poor weather since August are expected to lead to a downward adjustment of US soybean yield per unit. US soybeans have strong support at the bottom with limited downside. In China, the expectation of abundant raw material supply continues, and it is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short term [2]. - Oils: Night - session oils trended strongly. Malaysia's palm oil production in August was 1.85 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase; exports were 1.32 million tons, a 0.29% month - on - month decrease; and inventory was 2.2 million tons, a 4.18% month - on - month increase. Short - term palm oil prices may be under pressure. US biodiesel policy has a negative impact on soybean oil, but the upcoming USDA report may boost soybean oil futures prices. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade relations and US biodiesel policy [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8336, 9330, and 9893 respectively, with price changes of 80, 86, and 123, and percentage changes of 0.97%, 0.93%, and - 3.15% respectively. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 3088, 2550, and 8844 respectively, with price changes of 22, - 15, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.72%, - 0.58%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - Spreads and Ratios: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 were - 68, 116, and 87 respectively, showing changes compared to the previous values. Ratios and spreads like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 also had corresponding current and previous values [1]. International Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4340, 1025, 51, and 286 respectively, with price changes of - 40, - 6, 1, and - 3, and percentage changes of - 0.91%, - 0.53%, 1.17%, and - 1.00% respectively [1]. Domestic Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The current spot prices of domestic products such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, and Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil were 8520, 8640, and 9330 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.12%, 0.12%, and - 0.53% respectively. Spot prices of other products also had corresponding changes [1]. - Basis and Spreads: Spot basis and spreads such as those between different grades of oils and meals had current and previous values, showing corresponding changes [1]. Import and Profit - Import Profit: The current import profits of products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, and Brazilian soybeans were - 292, 105, and - 70 respectively, showing changes compared to the previous values [1]. Warehouse Receipts - Warehouse Receipt Quantities: The current warehouse receipt quantities of products such as soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 24,544, 639, and 6,953 respectively, with some showing no change compared to the previous values [1].