原油：供应增加抑制反弹，再次观望

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View The supply increase suppresses the rebound of crude oil, and it is recommended to wait and see again. The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral view [1][8]. Section Summaries 1. Global Benchmark Crude Oil Price Dynamics - Brent (ICE) price is $67.49/bbl with a daily change of $1.1. The North Sea oilfield maintenance reaches its peak, and the shooting down of a Russian drone by Poland boosts the geopolitical premium [2]. - WTI (NYMEX) price is $63.67/bbl with a daily change of $1.04. Cushing inventory decreases by 2.8 million barrels weekly, and the strategic reserve repurchase starts [2]. - Dubai (Platts) price is $71.72/bbl with a daily change of $0.84. Middle - East refinery feed demand is strong, and the November spot premium hits a new high [2]. - Murban (ADNOC) price is $70.1/bbl with a daily change of -$1.02. The official selling price is lowered by $1.02 to respond to Asian buyers switching to US West Coast crude oil [2]. - Urals (CIF) price is $57.91/bbl with a daily change of $0.54. Indian refineries make bargain purchases, and the Baltic Sea loading volume increases by 15% month - on - month [2]. 2. Regional Crude Oil Spreads - Brent - WTI spread is $3.9/bbl, affected by the decline in Cushing inventory. The congestion of US Gulf export facilities intensifies, and the European arbitrage window closes [3]. - Dubai - Oman spread is $0.28/bbl, due to the Middle - East OSP cut. Saudi Arabia reduces Asian long - term contract volumes, and the spot market competition heats up [5]. - ESPO - Dubai spread is -$1.41/bbl, caused by the increase in Russian exports. Russian oil companies use a new method to avoid price limits: delivering a mixture of Omani crude oil [5]. - Midland - Cushing spread is $0.95/bbl, due to pipeline capacity constraints. An EPIC pipeline failure causes more than 5 million barrels of accumulation in the Permian Basin [5]. 3. Device Impact - Cosmo Oil's 100,000 b/d device is under maintenance from August 27 to early October, affecting Sakai crude oil. Japanese gasoline inventory drops to a five - year low, and emergency reserves are released [5]. - Sinopec Zhenhai's 200,000 b/d device maintenance is postponed to the end of September, affecting ESPO crude oil. Zhoushan's commercial crude oil inventory breaks the historical peak [5]. - BP Rotterdam's 180,000 b/d device is under maintenance from September 15 to November 10, affecting North Sea Forties. The European diesel crack spread widens by $1.2/bbl [5]. - Reliance's 660,000 b/d device is planned for maintenance in October, affecting Middle - East heavy crude oil. India's early stockpiling narrows the Middle - East fuel oil discount [5]. 4. Key Crude Oil Trade Dynamics - Persian Gulf - Japan route (VLCC): Freight is w64.5 with a weekly change of 0.15. Red Sea route insurance premiums increase by 300%, and shipowners detour around the Cape of Good Hope [6]. - US Gulf - China route (VLCC): Freight is $8.45m, an increase of $1.9m. The Panama Canal's traffic restrictions lead to tight shipping capacity [6]. - Singapore - East China route (LR2): Freight is $2.35m with a change of 0.12. China's bonded oil demand surges, and ship schedules are booked until three weeks later [6]. - West Africa - China route (Suezmax): Freight is w107.5 with a change of 0.08. India's procurement shifts to West Africa, squeezing Far - East shipping capacity [6]. 5. Comparison of Different Oil Types - 92 - octane gasoline (Singapore): Crack spread is $22/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $83.27. Indonesian Pertamina makes an emergency purchase of October cargoes, and Southeast Asian inventory drops to a three - week low [6]. - 0.5% low - sulfur fuel oil: Crack spread is $6.93/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $492.08. China's bonded refueling demand surges, and 23 ships are waiting at Zhoushan anchorage [6]. - 10ppm diesel: Crack spread is $19/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $88.12. African diesel power generation demand is in the peak season, and West African imports reach a record high [6]. - 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil: Crack spread is -$2.25/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $426. The restart of Australia's Viva refinery is delayed, and regional supply glut persists [6]. 6. Key Market News - OPEC Monthly Report: In August, OPEC+ crude oil production averaged 42.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 509,000 barrels per day compared to July as OPEC+ raised production [9]. - IEA Monthly Report: The 2025 world oil demand growth forecast is raised to 740,000 barrels per day (previously forecasted at 680,000 barrels per day) [9].