申银万国期货早间策略-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in Q4 to boost the real economy. External risks are gradually easing, and the increasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but it is necessary to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which have more technology - growth components, are more offensive, with larger fluctuations but potentially higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300, which have more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive, with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity. Since July, the stock index has continued to rise with a large increase, with short - term fluctuations and consolidations, but the probability of a medium - to - long - term upward trend is high [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (IF当月, IF下月, IF下季, IF隔季) were 4562.00, 4554.40, 4530.20, and 4507.20 respectively, with increases of 117.40, 117.20, 115.00, and 113.20, and increases of 2.64%, 2.64%, 2.60%, and 2.58% respectively. The trading volumes were 96412.00, 11604.00, 47652.00, and 13945.00 respectively, and the open interests were 115085.00, 18038.00, 108324.00, and 40692.00 respectively, with changes of 1600.00, 2953.00, 1872.00, and 239.00 respectively [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (IH当月, IH下月, IH下季, IH隔季) were 2990.20, 2988.60, 2988.40, and 2991.20 respectively, with increases of 46.00, 45.20, 45.20, and 45.40, and increases of 1.56%, 1.54%, 1.54%, and 1.54% respectively. The trading volumes were 42028.00, 4349.00, 19781.00, and 4837.00 respectively, and the open interests were 50570.00, 7175.00, 36302.00, and 10351.00 respectively, with changes of 2315.00, 1502.00, 3653.00, and 1041.00 respectively [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (IC当月, IC下月, IC下季, IC隔季) were 7124.60, 7073.00, 6969.20, and 6823.20 respectively, with increases of 236.80, 247.20, 259.20, and 266.60, and increases of 3.44%, 3.62%, 3.86%, and 4.07% respectively. The trading volumes were 103556.00, 16823.00, 55990.00, and 19426.00 respectively, and the open interests were 105917.00, 22720.00, 96364.00, and 41335.00 respectively, with changes of 623.00, 7285.00, 7632.00, and 3408.00 respectively [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (IM当月, IM下月, IM下季, IM隔季) were 7387.80, 7326.00, 7183.60, and 6994.00 respectively, with increases of 211.20, 213.60, 218.60, and 216.60, and increases of 2.94%, 3.00%, 3.14%, and 3.20% respectively. The trading volumes were 181199.00, 20631.00, 87901.00, and 28376.00 respectively, and the open interests were 147845.00, 34852.00, 136366.00, and 69269.00 respectively, with changes of - 6657.00, 4743.00, 3831.00, and 2712.00 respectively [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF下月 - IF当月, IH下月 - IH当月, IC下月 - IC当月, and IM下月 - IM当月 were - 7.60, - 1.60, - 51.60, and - 61.80 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 9.60, - 1.60, - 60.40, and - 62.40 respectively [1] II. Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The previous value of the CSI 300 index was 4548.03, with a trading volume of 6931.57 billion yuan and a trading volume of 253.26 billion hands, and a previous two - day value of 4445.36, with a rise of 2.31%. The previous value of the SSE 50 index was 2983.08, with a trading volume of 1884.95 billion yuan and a trading volume of 68.33 billion hands, and a previous two - day value of 2939.59, with a rise of 1.48%. The previous value of the CSI 500 index was 7122.71, with a trading volume of 4694.98 billion yuan and a trading volume of 243.95 billion hands, and a previous two - day value of 6932.11, with a rise of 2.75%. The previous value of the CSI 1000 index was 7399.89, with a trading volume of 4862.37 billion yuan and a trading volume of 293.98 billion hands, and a previous two - day value of 7230.17, with a rise of 2.35% [1] - Industry Indexes: Among different industries, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption sectors had increases of 0.28%, 1.64%, 1.43%, and 0.69% respectively. The main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology sectors had increases of 0.96%, - 0.40%, 1.36%, and 6.34% respectively. The telecommunications business and public utilities sectors had increases of 8.27% and 0.10% respectively [1] III. Futures - Spot Basis - IF Contracts: The previous values of IF当月 - CSI 300, IF下月 - CSI 300, IF下季 - CSI 300, and IF隔季 - CSI 300 were 13.97, 6.37, - 17.83, and - 40.83 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 12.96, - 22.56, - 44.76, and - 67.16 respectively [1] - IH Contracts: The previous values of IH当月 - SSE 50, IH下月 - SSE 50, IH下季 - SSE 50, and IH隔季 - SSE 50 were 7.12, 5.52, 5.32, and 8.12 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 1.79, - 3.39, - 2.79, and 0.21 respectively [1] - IC Contracts: The previous values of IC当月 - CSI 500, IC下月 - CSI 500, IC下季 - CSI 500, and IC隔季 - CSI 500 were 1.89, - 49.71, - 153.51, and - 299.51 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 68.71, - 129.11, - 249.31, and - 400.91 respectively [1] - IM Contracts: The previous values of IM当月 - CSI 1000, IM下月 - CSI 1000, IM下季 - CSI 1000, and IM隔季 - CSI 1000 were - 12.09, - 73.89, - 216.29, and - 405.89 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 79.17, - 141.57, - 291.97, and - 480.17 respectively [1] IV. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous value of the Shanghai Composite Index was 3875.31, with a previous two - day value of 3812.22 and a rise of 1.65%. The previous value of the Shenzhen Component Index was 12979.89, with a previous two - day value of 12557.68 and a rise of 3.36%. The previous value of the Small and Medium - sized Board Index was 7923.26, with a previous two - day value of 7686.96 and a rise of 3.07%. The previous value of the ChiNext Index was 3053.75, with a previous two - day value of 2904.27 and a rise of 5.15% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous value of the Hang Seng Index was 26086.32, with a previous two - day value of 26200.26 and a decline of 0.43%. The previous value of the Nikkei 225 was 44372.50, with a previous two - day value of 43837.67 and a rise of 1.22%. The previous value of the S&P 500 was 6587.47, with a previous two - day value of 6532.04 and a rise of 0.85%. The previous value of the DAX Index was 23703.65, with a previous two - day value of 23632.95 and a rise of 0.30% [1] V. Macroeconomic Information - Domestic: The State Council approved a two - year pilot program for comprehensive reform of factor market allocation in 10 regions including the Beijing Sub - center and key cities in southern Jiangsu, covering traditional factors such as land, labor, and capital, as well as innovative factors such as technology and data, aiming to remove institutional obstacles to factor flow and efficient allocation. The People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Indonesia launched a bilateral local - currency settlement framework and a QR - code interconnection cooperation project [2] - International: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US CPI in August rose 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and 0.4% month - on - month, slightly higher than the expected 0.3%. The core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations and the previous value. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021. After the data release, traders fully priced in three Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on some trading partners, and China's Ministry of Commerce said it would closely monitor the situation and take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests [2] VI. Industry Information - Automobile Industry: In 2026 and 2027, the purchase tax on new - energy vehicles will be halved to 5%. In August, China's automobile production and sales were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively, up 13% and 16.4% year - on - year. New - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, up 27.4% and 26.8% year - on - year. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time [2] - Internet Industry: The National Internet Information Office shut down or restricted multiple illegal accounts such as "券业行家" and "国际投行研究报告" [2] - Labor Union: The All - China Federation of Trade Unions held a meeting on platform algorithm and labor rule negotiation. As of now, 15 leading platform companies have been included in the scope of work, 7 of which have signed special agreements on algorithms and labor rules, and the rest are expected to complete negotiations and sign agreements by the end of September, covering over 20 million new - form workers [2]