申万期货品种策略日报：贵金属-20250912

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Gold has entered a consolidation phase. The inflation data in August strengthened the expectation of a September interest rate cut, and the weak employment data further confirmed the prospect of a rate cut in September, which boosted gold prices. The market is speculating on a 50bp rate cut, but multiple rate cuts within the year are more likely. Gold and silver may show a relatively strong trend as the rate cut approaches and due to Trump's interference in the Fed's independence, but short - term adjustments due to profit - taking should be noted [5] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures Market - For gold futures contracts (沪金2510 and 沪金2512), prices decreased with a decline of 0.18% and 0.13% respectively. For silver futures contracts (沪银2510 and 沪银2512), prices increased by 0.90% and 0.93% respectively [2] Spot Market - In the spot market, the prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D decreased, while the price of London Silver increased by 0.87% [2] Inventory - The inventory of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 4,200 kg, while the inventory of silver decreased by 11,983 kg. COMEX silver inventory increased by 1,384,668 [2] Related Derivatives - The SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 1 ton each. The CFTC net long position for silver increased by 481, while that for gold decreased by 1,451 [2] Group 4: Macro News Summary - US August CPI data was released, with CPI同比 at 2.9% (in line with expectations), CPI环比 at 0.4% (slightly higher than expected), and core CPI同比 at 3.1% and环比 at 0.3% (both in line with expectations and previous values). The number of initial jobless claims last week reached 263,000, the highest since October 2021. After the data release, traders fully priced in three rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year [3] - The proportion of gold in global central bank reserves (excluding the Fed) has exceeded US Treasuries for the first time since 1996 [3] - The European Central Bank kept its policy unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, believing that inflation pressure has been effectively curbed and the euro - zone economy remains robust. Traders reduced their bets on the ECB's easing policy, suggesting that the rate - cut cycle has ended [3]