渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.09.12）-20250912

Market Overview - Major indices experienced gains over the past five trading days, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.91% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 10.00% [2] - The trading volume significantly decreased, with a total of 11.26 trillion yuan traded, averaging 2.25 trillion yuan per day, a reduction of 414.68 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [2] - Among the sectors, only the banking industry saw a decline, while the communication, electronics, and power equipment sectors led the gains [2] Economic Data - In August, exports grew by 4.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from July, attributed to a high base last year and prior "export rush" effects [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month in August, with a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, influenced by sufficient pork supply and energy price pressures [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month stabilization and a narrowing year-on-year decline for the first time since March, driven by a lower base and "anti-involution" measures [2] Policy Insights - The Ministry of Finance emphasized strengthening domestic circulation as a key task for fiscal policy, focusing on consumer stimulation and public service investments [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission highlighted the need for capacity governance in key industries and addressing irrational competition in its report on economic development plans [3] Investment Strategy - The policy direction from the Political Bureau meeting aims to consolidate the recovery of the capital market, alleviating investor concerns about market downturn risks [4] - Short-term market themes remain active, but their sustainability needs to be observed, with structural performance expected to outperform the overall market as valuations recover [4] Industry Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the TMT sector are anticipated due to advancements in domestic computing power and the "AI+" initiative [4] - The power equipment and non-ferrous metals industries may benefit from unexpected demand for energy storage and breakthroughs in solid-state battery production [4] - The financial sector is expected to see investment opportunities as the capital market stabilizes [4]