宝城期货煤焦早报-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both coking coal and coke 2601 contracts, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The core logic for coking coal is that multiple and short factors are intertwined, leading to an oscillatory operation. For coke, it is due to strong expectations but weak reality, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - Price and Change: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1140.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.4% [5]. - Core Logic: Domestically, coking coal production has been suppressed, but the lack of further production - cut expectations has cooled the optimistic sentiment in the futures market, and the demand - dragging logic is emerging. However, the "anti - involution" news still causes occasional disturbances, creating resistance to the downward movement of coking coal futures. As a result, the market is in a stalemate between bulls and bears, and the main contract oscillates within a range [5]. Coke (J) - Price and Change: The latest quotation of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.18%. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.70% [6]. - Core Logic: Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation of coke has not improved significantly. After the September 3 parade, coke enterprises and steel mills gradually resumed production, but due to the shrinking profits of downstream steel mills, concerns on the demand side are emerging. In terms of news, the "anti - involution" policy expectations still cause occasional disturbances, supporting coke to maintain an oscillatory operation for the time being. Attention should be paid to whether specific policies will be introduced later [6].