生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The view of the report is that the price of live pigs will experience a shock adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will support pig prices; if the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price may rebound at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On September 11, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots [2]. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) increased its positions by 234 lots today, with a position of about 76,000 lots. The highest price was 13,370 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,285 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,320 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen in a shock [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes that the weight reduction in the breeding end is beneficial to the future market, consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cool, and the increase in subsequent slaughter volume is limited [3]. Strategy Suggestions - The view is shock adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will support pig prices; if a negative cycle forms, the pig price may rebound at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [4]. Market Overview - The national average live pig slaughter price on September 11 was 13.33 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan or 0.15% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 13.52 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan or 0.07% [6]. - Among the futures prices, the 01 contract was 13,730 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 0.07%; the 03 contract was 13,015 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 05 contract was 13,520 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 0.15%; the 07 contract was 14,285 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.14%; the 09 contract was 13,090 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan or - 0.87%; the 11 contract was 13,320 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04% [6]. - The main basis in Henan was 200 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 2.56% [6]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contracts [14].