铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US within the year is further strengthened, with the A - share market rising on heavy volume, and the bond market showing fluctuations. The prices of various commodities are influenced by macro - economic data, industry fundamentals, and geopolitical risks, showing different trends such as high - level oscillations, upward or downward trends [2][3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The non - over - expected CPI and cold initial jobless claims in the US in August strengthened the interest rate cut trading. The US 8 - month CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, core CPI was 3.1%, both in line with expectations and flat compared to July. The initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, hitting a more than two - year high. The market pricing of three interest rate cuts within the year was strengthened, the US dollar index fell to 97.5, the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped to the 4.0% mark, and US stocks reached new highs. The eurozone central bank maintained interest rates unchanged in September and raised growth and inflation expectations [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market rose on heavy volume, with over 4000 stocks rising and the trading volume reaching 2.4 trillion. The ChiNext and STAR Market led the gains. The bond market fluctuated sharply, with the unilateral rise of A - shares suppressing the bond market, but the marginal loosening of the capital side and the discussion of the central bank's restart of bond - buying drove the bond market to stop falling and rebound [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices closed mixed on Thursday. COMEX gold futures fell 0.23% to $3673.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.12% to $42.07 per ounce. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut was strengthened, but the international gold price slightly declined due to long - position closing. It is expected that gold and silver prices will maintain a high - level oscillation before the Fed's interest rate cut on the 18th [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upwards, and London copper approached the previous high of the year. The consumption in the domestic peak season is expected to return, and the market continues to bet on 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. It is expected that copper prices will enter an oscillating upward trend in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,915 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The LME closed at $2622/ton, up 0.21%. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods are both in the process of destocking, indicating that the peak - season consumption is gradually being realized. The short - term macro - environment and fundamentals are both positive, and aluminum prices will continue to show a strong performance [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2945 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The supply - side pressure of alumina still exists, and the market is dominated by a bearish atmosphere. It continues to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the cost support [10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and shifted slightly upward at night. The social inventory in China continues to increase, which exerts pressure on zinc prices, but the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. With the gradual recovery of consumption, destocking is still expected. Zinc prices will operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [11]. 3.7 Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated during the day and opened lower and moved higher at night. The high inventory exerts pressure on lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a weak oscillation before consumption improves [12]. 3.8 Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated horizontally during the day and showed a strong oscillation at night. The low - level LME inventory still supports tin prices. It is expected that tin prices will follow the non - ferrous metal sector to repair with a strong oscillation in the short term [13][14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the main contract of industrial silicon rebounded from a low level. The supply side shows a passive contraction trend, and the demand side has different performances in each link. The industrial silicon social inventory continues to decline, and the spot market stabilizes. It is expected that the futures price will maintain an oscillation in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, the price of lithium carbonate oscillated, and the spot price weakened. The short - term market still focuses on the resource game around the lithium mine event. Although the spot inventory is being destocked, more resources are flowing to the exchange. The lithium price may oscillate around the resource game [17]. 3.11 Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price oscillated strongly. The US labor market shows signs of weakness, and the inflation pressure slows down. The market's expectation of the Fed's subsequent interest rate cut path is more dovish. The nickel price may oscillate strongly driven by the macro - environment [18][19]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Thursday, the oil price oscillated. The views of OPEC and IEA are divergent. The market may be more inclined to the IEA's view, and the expectation of supply surplus may put pressure on oil prices in the medium and long term. However, short - term geopolitical risks are rising, and it is expected that the oil price will oscillate [20][21]. 3.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated weakly. The steel production decreased, the inventory continued to accumulate, and the supply - demand relationship was not good. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate at a low level [22][23]. 3.14 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated and declined. The iron ore price is affected by poor terminal demand and weak steel prices. The supply side is shrinking, and there is still a replenishment expectation in mid - to - late September. It is expected that iron ore will oscillate [24]. 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the 01 contract of soybean meal rose 0.78%, and the 01 contract of rapeseed meal rose 0.98%. The market expects the NOPA's soybean crushing volume in August to reach a record high for the same period. The net sales of US soybeans for export are slow. It is expected that the domestic continuous meal will oscillate in the short term [25][26]. 3.16 Palm Oil - On Thursday, the 01 contract of palm oil fell 0.11%. High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in early September decreased month - on - month, providing support for prices. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate and adjust in the short term [27][28]. 3.17 Metal Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and positions of various metal futures contracts on September 11, including SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [29] 3.18 Industrial Data - The report presents detailed industrial data for various metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc., including price changes, inventory changes, and basis changes from September 10 to 11 [30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]