沪铜日评：美联储降息预期和传统消费旺季支撑铜价-20250912

Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and the traditional consumption peak season may lead to a slightly stronger and fluctuating price of Shanghai copper [2]. - The continuous arrival of imported copper and the weak demand may cause a slight increase in copper inventory [2]. - The high - investment in the national power grid in 2025 can provide support for the wire and cable industry and offset the weak demand from downstream industries to some extent [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract: On September 11, 2025, the closing price was 80,130, up 340 from the previous day; the trading volume was 64,849 lots, a decrease of 20,309 lots; the open interest was 174,453 lots, an increase of 2,541 lots; the inventory was 20,028 tons, an increase of 902 tons; the basis was 45, up 90 [2]. - London Copper: On September 11, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,051.5, up 38.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 61.54, down 4.93; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 171.32, down 10.28 [2]. - COMEX Copper: On September 11, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 4.671, up 0.10; the total inventory was 309,834, an increase of 2,138 [2]. Important Information - Inventory: As of September 11, the domestic mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.26 million tons to 14.43 million tons this week. The in - transit inventory reached a record high due to delivery demand. SMM expects that with the continuous arrival of imported goods and weak demand, the copper inventory will increase slightly [2]. - National Grid Investment: In 2025, the investment of the national power grid continued to be booming, with a planned total investment of about 825 billion yuan. The stable orders of the national power grid can provide continuous demand support, and the acceleration of project progress in the second half of the year will ensure the stable operation of the wire and cable industry [2]. Long - Short Logic - Supply: The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia under Freeport suspended mining due to an accident on September 8. There are disruptions in the production of many domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative but rising China copper concentrate import index. The supply - demand of domestic copper concentrates is expected to be tight, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates tend to decline. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September has increased [2]. - Demand: New orders for copper enameled wires have shown signs of improvement, but high copper prices suppress the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises [2]. - Inventory: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has slightly decreased, but the in - transit inventory has increased due to delivery demand; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has decreased, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased [2]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly place long orders after the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,800 - 10,000 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500 for London copper, and the support level around 4.0 - 4.3 and the resistance level around 4.7 - 5.0 for US copper [2].