碳酸锂日评：偏弱震荡-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On September 11, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range, with trading volume at 426,041 lots (-325,439) and open interest at 323,456 lots (-17,358). The spot market saw active low - price transactions, and the basis premium narrowed. In the short term, both supply and demand are strong, the upstream inventory pressure is not large, and the resumption of production at the Xialuokeng lithium mine is being actively promoted, weakening the supply contraction expectation. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate downward [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market Data - Prices: The closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts showed various changes. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract was 71,020 yuan/ton, the closing price of the continuous - first contract was 70,860 yuan/ton, etc. The price differences between different contracts also changed, such as the near - month - continuous - first spread being 160 yuan/ton [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 426,041 lots, a decrease of 325,439 lots compared to the previous period. The open interest was 323,456 lots, a decrease of 17,358 lots [1]. - Inventory: The inventory was 38,391 tons, an increase of 290 tons compared to the previous period [1]. Spot Market Data - Lithium Ore Prices: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 849 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [1]. - Lithium Compound Prices: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 75,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic, coarse - grained) was 74,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton [1]. - Other Battery Material Prices: The average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 79,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 575 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 33,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased, and the output of lithium carbonate made from different raw materials all increased. The Xialuokeng lithium mine is actively promoting resumption of production [1]. - Demand: Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the output of ternary materials decreased. In September, the production schedule of lead - acid batteries and manganese - acid batteries increased, and the output of power batteries increased last week. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1]. Inventory Situation - Registered warehouse inventory was 38,391 tons (+290 tons), and social inventory decreased. Inventories at smelters and others decreased, while downstream inventories increased [1]. News and Investment Strategy - News: On September 9, Ningde Times' subsidiary made a series of decisions for the resumption of production at the Xialuokeng lithium mine, including employee deployment, production equipment inspection, safety checks, and cost - reduction plans [1]. - Investment Strategy: It is recommended to short at high prices [1].