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尿素早评:现货走低,关注后市逢低做多机会-20250912
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-09-12 02:38

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and driving factors, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying low in the future market. Considering both valuation and driving factors, it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying low for the 01 contract [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shandong increased by 2 yuan/ton (0.12%), UR01 in Shanxi decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.28%), UR05 remained unchanged, UR09 decreased by 18 yuan/ton (-1.12%), and UR01 in Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.60%) [1] - Domestic spot prices (small granules): In Hebei, it decreased by 40 yuan/ton (-2.34%), and remained unchanged in the Northeast and Jiangsu [1] - Spreads: The spread between Shandong spot and UR decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1] - Upstream costs: The anthracite price in Henan remained unchanged, while in Shanxi, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-2.22%) [1] - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged, the melamine price in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.33%), and in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged [1] 2. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1669 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1666 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1671 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1672 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2601 was 292,643 lots [1] 3. Long - Short Logic - Valuation: The current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not high [1] - Driving factors: In the second half of the year, there are two possible upward driving factors for the urea price. First, there is an expectation of renovation of old production facilities on the supply side, with about 20% of urea production facilities over 20 years old, and the current comprehensive operating rate of urea is over 80% with limited idle capacity. Second, there is an expectation of improved exports on the demand side, and urea exports from September to October are quite promising under the background of improved China - India relations [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying low for the 01 contract [1]