宏源期货PX&PTA&PR早评-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - On September 11, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $62.37 per barrel, down 2.04% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $66.37 per barrel, down 1.66% [1] - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $604 per ton, up 0.12%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $688 per ton, up 0.66% [1] - The spot price of p-xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $838 per ton, up 0.10%; the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,688 yuan per ton, down 0.21% [1] - The settlement price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,688 yuan per ton, up 0.04%; the closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,600 yuan per ton, down 0.56% [1] - The settlement price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,602 yuan per ton, up 0.09%; the domestic spot price of PTA was 4,615 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1] - The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,620 yuan per ton, down 0.11%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $625 per ton (as of September 10), up 0.64% [1] - The near - far month spread of TA was - 86 yuan per ton, up 2 yuan; the basis was - 68 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,778 yuan per ton, up 0.12%; the settlement price was 6,766 yuan per ton, up 0.21% [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 6,782 yuan per ton, up 0.21%; the settlement price was 6,782 yuan per ton, up 0.21% [1] - The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,621 yuan per ton, unchanged; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (CFR China Taiwan) was $839 per ton, unchanged [1] - The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (FOB Korea) was $814 per ton, unchanged; the PXN spread was $234 per ton, up 0.03% [1] - The PX - MX spread was $150 per ton, down 2.39%; the basis of PX was - 157 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,844 yuan per ton, down 0.07%; the settlement price was 5,838 yuan per ton, down 0.07% [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,700 yuan per ton, down 1.52%; the settlement price was 5,700 yuan per ton, down 1.52% [1] - The market price (dominant price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,830 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; in the South China market, it was 5,890 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1] - The basis in the East China market was - 14 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan; the basis in the South China market was 46 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,600 yuan per ton, down 0.58%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,000 yuan per ton, down 1.06% [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 7,150 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,470 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,825 yuan per ton, up 0.26% [2] - The CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,830 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [2] Startup and Production - Sales Information - On September 11, 2025, the startup rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 83.71%, up 1.12 percentage points [1] - The load rate of the PTA factory in the PTA industry chain was 78.25%, unchanged; the load rate of the polyester factory was 88.25%, unchanged [1] - The load rate of the bottle chip factory was 73.27%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 65.54%, up 0.98 percentage points [1] - The production - sales rate of polyester filament was 47.80%, down 21.20 percentage points; the production - sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 71.44%, up 16.25 percentage points [1] - The production - sales rate of polyester chips was 53.63%, down 144.86 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22; two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2] PX Summary - Due to the enhanced uncertainty in Eastern Europe after the Russian drone intrusion into Poland and the continuous impact in the Middle East, oil prices rose overnight. However, EIA inventory data showed a significant unexpected build - up of crude oil, and weak demand temporarily outweighed the expected impact of geopolitics on supply, causing oil prices to weaken during the day [2] - The cost - end oil market continued to run strongly, and the domestic PX was still in a tight - balance pattern. There were promotion activities in the polyester market, and the on - site wait - and - see atmosphere intensified, with no transaction heard during the day [2] - The fundamentals did not change significantly. The PX2511 contract closed at 6,778 yuan per ton (up 0.39%), with an intraday trading volume of 118,900 lots [2] - On the supply side, the Fuzhou and Fuhua devices did not operate as planned, the load of some devices increased, and the domestic PX startup increased. Some domestic and foreign PX devices restarted one after another, and the short - process profit margin expanded, so the PX supply increased more than expected [2] - Although it has entered the peak season of downstream polyester, new orders and loads have not shown unexpected performance, hitting market sentiment. Recently, the price of naphtha has trended strongly, and the PXN is expected to run weakly [2] PTA Summary - The demand performance in the peak season was poor. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,688 yuan per ton (up 0.04%), with an intraday trading volume of 442,000 lots [2] - The high production - sales rate of downstream polyester filament could not be maintained, crude oil failed to rise strongly, the PTA spot supply was sufficient, the PTA market declined slightly, and the spot basis weakened [2] - The current processing margin also faces loss pressure for some new - technology PTA devices. There is new capacity release in the downstream, but due to the planned production cuts of some enterprises, the short - term market supply may remain stable [2] - Overall, the supply pressure of polyester filament has not increased significantly. In the short term, the impact of the demand side on the market price will still be relatively limited, and the market trading atmosphere may continue to be dull [2] - Although the social inventory of PTA is not high, the liquidity is relatively loose, and the weak demand has raised market concerns [2] PR Summary - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5,830 - 5,910 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day. The PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuated narrowly, the supply - side quotation of bottle chips was stable, downstream terminals were cautious and wait - and - see, and the trading atmosphere was weak [2] - The downstream demand for PR was average. The PR2511 contract closed at 5,844 yuan per ton (up 0.03%), with an intraday trading volume of 34,300 lots [2] - Recently, the startup of the bottle chip supply side has been stable, and the market spot supply is loose. Downstream terminals continue to make rigid purchases, and the trading atmosphere is cautious [2]