China Post Securities·2025-09-12 02:43Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock, indicating an expected increase in price relative to the benchmark index by over 20% within six months [12]. Core Insights - The company has launched an equity incentive plan, demonstrating confidence in future growth, with stock options granted amounting to 2.6176 million shares, representing 2.55% of total shares [3]. - Revenue growth is robust, with a 48.64% year-on-year increase in H1 2025, reaching 1.168 billion yuan, while net losses narrowed significantly by 36% [4]. - The core product, Toripalimab, has seen strong sales growth, with domestic revenue of 0.954 billion yuan, a 42% increase year-on-year, driven by expanded indications and accelerated international approvals [5]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.614 billion yuan in 2025, 3.452 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.392 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits expected to turn positive by 2027 [6][10]. - The EBITDA is forecasted to improve from -978 million yuan in 2024 to 859 million yuan in 2027, indicating a significant turnaround in operational efficiency [10]. Product Pipeline and Market Potential - The company’s pipeline is entering a critical phase, with multiple products in various stages of clinical trials, including JS207 and JS015, which have shown promising early results [5]. - The internationalization of Toripalimab is progressing, with approvals in 40 countries, and a new subcutaneous formulation expected to enhance market penetration [5]. Operational Efficiency - The company has effectively controlled costs, with a reduction in sales expense ratio and an 18.6% decrease in management expenses year-on-year, contributing to improved operational efficiency [4].