日度策略参考-20250912

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Zinc, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Ethanol, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, PP, Alumina [1] - Bearish: Iron Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Soda Ash, Black Metal, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping Routes [1] - Sideways: Treasury Bonds, Silver, Alumina, Stainless Steel, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Paper Pulp, Live Pigs, Natural Rubber, PE, PP, PVC, PG [1] Core Views of the Report - Short - term stock index futures' discount has widened again, and with liquidity drive, short - term index adjustments may bring long - position layout opportunities. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning suppresses the upside. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, providing support for gold prices. [1] - For base metals, the US CPI inflation data basically meets expectations, increasing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The approaching consumption peak season may drive up copper and aluminum prices. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but there is still pressure from long - term primary nickel oversupply. [1] - In the black metal sector, the supply - demand situation is not optimistic in the short - term, with supply recovering and demand at risk of weakening, and high inventory levels. The steel market is under pressure due to supply surplus. [1] - In the agricultural products sector, the market situation varies. For example, palm oil has short - term callback risks but long - term upward logic. Cotton has short - term supply tightness, while sugar is expected to be in a weak - sideway trend. [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, the overall situation is affected by factors such as production increases, cost support, and demand changes. For example, crude oil's fundamental situation is loose, and PTA's production has recovered. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Stock Index Futures: Short - term discount widening and liquidity drive may offer long - position opportunities during short - term index adjustments [1] - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning suppresses upside [1] Precious Metals - Gold: Fed's expected September interest - rate cut provides support, short - term high - level strong operation with attention to volatility risks [1] - Silver: Short - term high - level strong operation [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: US inflation data and approaching consumption peak season may drive up prices [1] - Aluminum: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and consumption peak season may lead to a strong trend [1] - Alumina: Production and inventory are increasing, but price is near the cost line with limited downward space [1] - Zinc: Social inventory increase pressures the price, but LME inventory decline and macro support limit the downside [1] - Nickel: Short - term macro - driven strong oscillation, long - term primary nickel oversupply pressure exists [1] - Stainless Steel: Raw - material support exists, short - term sideway operation [1] - Tin: Overall support exists, pay attention to low - long opportunities [1] Black Metals - Rebar: Valuation returns to neutral, industrial drive is unclear, and macro drive is positive [1] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward adjustment opportunities [1] - Iron Ore: Short - term supply - demand is not optimistic, with high inventory [1] - Coke and Coking Coal: Supply - demand is weak, price is under pressure [1] - Soda Ash: Supply surplus pressure is large, price is under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Short - term callback risk, long - term upward logic [1] - Soybean Meal: Domestic inventory increase may pressure the price, but long - term upward logic remains [1] - Cotton: Short - term supply tightness, new - cotton acquisition game is the focus [1] - Sugar: Expected to be in a weak - sideway trend, short - term downward space is limited [1] - Corn: New - grain harvest may bring selling pressure, C01 is expected to decline [1] - Soybean Meal: MO1 has limited downward space, short - term sideway adjustment, consider low - long [1] - Paper Pulp: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread [1] - Logs: Fundamental situation is stable, price is in a weak - sideway trend [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical tension, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectation affect the price [1] - Fuel Oil: Similar influencing factors as crude oil [1] - Natural Rubber: Raw - material cost support, slow inventory removal, and negative market sentiment [1] - BR Rubber: Follow crude oil, pay attention to inventory removal and device maintenance [1] - PTA: Production recovery, downstream profit improvement [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Basis strengthening, new device production pressure [1] - Short - Fiber: Device return, weakening delivery willingness [1] - Pure Benzene and Styrene: Inventory accumulation, supply increase, import pressure [1] - PE: Macro - positive, more maintenance, weak - sideway price [1] - PP: Maintenance support is limited, sideway - weak trend [1] - PVC: Return to fundamentals, supply pressure, sideway - weak trend [1] - Alumina: Approaching peak season, low inventory, price rebound [1] - LPG: Crude oil production increase, fundamental pressure, downstream profit deterioration [1] Shipping - Container Shipping Routes: September supply exceeds the same - period level, freight rate decline is faster than expected [1]