五矿期货农产品早报-20250912

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean import cost is expected to remain weakly stable, and the domestic soybean meal market is likely to enter a destocking phase in September, with soybean meal prices predicted to fluctuate within a range [3][5]. - The central price of oils is supported by multiple factors, and they are expected to show a moderately upward - trending oscillation in the medium term, with a strategy of buying on dips and stabilization [7][10]. - The sugar price is generally bearish, and its downward space depends on the Brazilian sugar production from August to October [13]. - The cotton price is likely to continue oscillating in the short term due to the coexistence of bullish and bearish factors [15][16]. - The egg price may be stable or rise in the short term, but there is a possibility of a decline after a short - term increase, with a suggestion to wait and see and consider short - term long positions on significant declines [18][20]. - The pig price is expected to remain at a low level with minor fluctuations, and the futures market should pay attention to potential rebounds and short - selling opportunities after rebounds [22][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - Important Information: On Thursday, US soybeans rose slightly, and the domestic soybean meal market was affected by high inventory. The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be low in the next two weeks, and the soybean good - quality rate may decline. The Brazilian soybean premium has rebounded after a decline. The domestic soybean inventory of oil mills has reached a five - year high, and the soybean meal inventory has slightly increased. Last week, 2.3 million tons of soybeans were crushed, and 2.26 million tons are expected to be crushed this week [2][3]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the cost performance after the stabilization of the soybean import cost. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to destock in September, and it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and be cautious about profit margins and supply pressure at the upper end [5]. Oils - Important Information: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, and the production decreased by 3.17% compared to the same period last month. The import price of palm oil in China has a larger negative spread. The domestic three major oils oscillated on Thursday, with multiple factors affecting the market [7]. - Trading Strategy: The central price of oils is supported, and they are expected to oscillate moderately upward in the medium term. With high current valuations, the strategy is to buy on dips and stabilization [10]. Sugar - Important Information: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to rebound. The Brazilian port's sugar - waiting - to - be - shipped quantity decreased slightly. The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed different degrees of increase [12]. - Trading Strategy: The sugar price is generally bearish, and its downward space depends on the Brazilian sugar production from August to October [13]. Cotton - Important Information: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate weakly. The开机 rates of spinning and weaving factories increased slightly, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased. The US cotton export signing volume and Brazil's cotton exports to China showed different trends [15]. - Trading Strategy: The cotton market has both bullish and bearish factors, and the short - term cotton price is expected to continue oscillating [16]. Eggs - Important Information: The national egg price mostly increased, with small inventory and good demand, and the market trading was smooth [18][19]. - Trading Strategy: The egg supply is still large, but there are factors limiting the decline. It is recommended to wait and see and consider short - term long positions on significant declines [20]. Pigs - Important Information: The domestic pig price showed a mixed trend, with a low - level consolidation state and a high probability of remaining stable [22]. - Trading Strategy: The supply in September is bearish, but there are potential supporting factors. The spot price is expected to fluctuate slightly, and the futures market should pay attention to potential rebounds and short - selling opportunities after rebounds [23].