IEA?报上调全球原油供应增量，原油带领油化?偏弱震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual product outlooks, the general sentiment is "oscillating weakly" for the chemical industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The IEA monthly report raised the global crude oil supply increment for 2025 from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day, and EIA and IEA reports both reaffirmed the market's surplus pattern. The U.S. petroleum total inventory increased by 15 million barrels weekly, and the surplus inventory is spreading to developed economies [2]. - The chemical industry follows raw material fluctuations. The demand peak season characteristics are not obvious. The overall operating rate of the agricultural film industry downstream of plastics is still at a low level, and the polyester and styrene downstream industries have mixed performance in terms of operating rate and inventory [3]. - Investors should approach the chemical industry with an oscillating weakly mindset and wait for the implementation of specific policies to address over - competition in China's petrochemical industry [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views Crude Oil - Viewpoint: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. The OPEC monthly report showed a significant increase in OPEC+ production in August, and the IEA monthly report strengthened the global crude oil surplus expectation. The oil price is expected to oscillate weakly, with geopolitical factors causing short - term disturbances [8]. Asphalt - Viewpoint: The resistance level of 3,500 for asphalt futures prices is gradually established. The supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the demand is still not optimistic. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: Fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. The increase in OPEC+ production, the deterioration of the U.S. employment data, and the decline in fuel oil demand expectations have led to a weakening of high - sulfur fuel oil. Geopolitical upgrades may cause short - term price fluctuations [10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. It faces a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with a low valuation and is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations [11]. Methanol - Viewpoint: Olefins still have a drag, and methanol futures prices oscillate. There is a contradiction between the inland and port inventories. Considering the high probability of overseas shutdown in the far - month, there may be opportunities for long - position in the far - month [26]. Urea - Viewpoint: Under the loose supply - demand fundamentals, the futures market runs weakly and stably. The market is waiting for new positive factors [27]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Viewpoint: Multiple new plants will be launched around October, which pressures market sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [18]. PX - Viewpoint: It oscillates following raw materials and the macro - environment. The price oscillates narrowly, and the fundamentals have limited contradictions [12]. PTA - Viewpoint: The sales volume lacks continuous growth, and the enthusiasm for raw material inventory is insufficient. The supply is slightly increasing, and the downstream polyester sales have turned cold again [13]. Short - Fiber - Viewpoint: The demand has not improved significantly, and there is a slight inventory build - up. The cost support is limited, and the downstream demand has not met expectations [20]. Bottle Chip - Viewpoint: There is limited driving force, and it follows passively. The upstream raw materials oscillate, and the supply - demand drive is weak [22]. PP - Viewpoint: As the oil price declines, PP oscillates and falls back. It has reached a low point in June, with support at the previous low. The supply side still has an incremental trend, and the demand is slowly increasing [30]. Propylene (PL) - Viewpoint: PL follows PP's short - term fluctuations. The inventory of propylene enterprises is low, and the short - term macro - end may fluctuate [32]. Plastic (LLDPE) - Viewpoint: As the oil price weakens, plastic oscillates and declines. The oil price is under pressure, and the domestic measures to address over - capacity have limited substantial support. The downstream start - up is slow, and the supply side still has pressure [29]. Pure Benzene - Viewpoint: The port will return to inventory build - up, and the pure benzene price oscillates weakly. The supply surplus risk is increasing, and the market is trading on the expected import increment in October and inventory build - up [14]. Styrene - Viewpoint: The decline has暂缓, and the market oscillates. It has rebounded after a decline, but the medium - term outlook is still bearish. There is still significant inventory pressure in September - October [17]. PVC - Viewpoint: Weak reality and strong expectation, PVC oscillates. The macro - policy has not been implemented, and the micro - fundamentals are under pressure, but the valuation is not high [34]. Caustic Soda - Viewpoint: The spot price has reached a short - term peak, and the futures market is cautiously weak. The short - term fundamental pressure is increasing, but the decline space is limited considering the far - month alumina production expectation [34]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - Period Spread: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.35 with a change of 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being 12 with a change of 10 [36]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Each variety has its own basis and warehouse receipt situation, for example, the basis of asphalt is 77 with a change of - 13, and the number of warehouse receipts is 64,460 [37]. - Inter - Variety Spread: There are various inter - variety spread values and changes, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 222 with a change of 51 [38]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring of multiple varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [39][52][64].