商品期货早班车-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased significantly, and European fiscal issues are fermenting. There may be a short - term callback due to the realization of bullish factors, but in the medium term, it is recommended to go long on gold; for silver, it is advised to take profits [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to buy on dips; for aluminum, it is expected to continue the pattern of volatile strength, and it is recommended to buy on dips; for alumina, it is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend, and it is recommended to wait and see; for zinc, it is recommended to operate within a range and short on rallies; for lead, it is recommended to operate in a range, buying low and selling high; for industrial silicon, before the actual implementation of relevant policies, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 8000 - 9000; for lithium carbonate, the price is expected to fluctuate between 68,000 - 75,000, and it is recommended to wait and see; for polysilicon, pay attention to the progress of the state - purchase plan in September, be cautious about going long on near - month contracts, and pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [2][3][4]. - For steel products, hold long positions in rebar; for iron ore, mainly wait and see; for coking coal, stop loss on short positions [4]. - For agricultural products, soybeans are in a short - term shock range; corn futures prices are expected to decline in shock; for sugar, short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, wait and see; for logs, wait and see; for palm oil, it is bullish in the medium term; for eggs, the spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures are expected to fluctuate; for pigs, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [6][7]. - For energy and chemical products, for PVC, it is recommended to hedge on rallies; for rubber, it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium term after the correction; for glass, it is expected to move up in shock, and it is recommended to go long with a light position; for crude oil, continue to short on rallies; for soda ash, wait and see; for caustic soda, it is recommended to go long [8][9]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Precious Metals - Market Performance: Precious metal prices slightly corrected, and the market started partial profit - taking operations [1]. - Fundamentals: The US August core CPI was in line with expectations and previous values. The main drivers of overall price increases were automobile and service prices. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged and lowered the inflation forecast for 2027. Domestic gold ETF funds continued to flow out slightly. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE gold inventory increased. Silver inventories in different regions showed different changes [1]. - Trading Strategies: In the medium term, it is recommended to go long on gold; for silver, it is advised to take profits [1]. 3.2 Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices were strong yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: US inflation data in August was slightly hot, and the initial jobless claims data was weaker than expected, strengthening the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The dollar index declined. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and copper smelting entered the maintenance season. Domestic weekly inventory decreased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategies: Buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.60% compared with the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. Consumption showed signs of recovery, and the weekly aluminum profile operating rate increased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategies: It is expected to continue the pattern of volatile strength. Pay attention to the implementation of interest rate cuts and inventory inflection points, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract increased by 0.41% compared with the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamentals: Alumina plants that had been under maintenance resumed production, and the operating capacity continued to be released. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategies: Overseas alumina prices fell sharply, and the domestic import window opened. The supply pressure continued to increase. It is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. Zinc - Market Performance: The closing price of the SHFE zinc 2509 contract increased by 0.20% compared with the previous trading day. Social inventory increased [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply remained at a high level, and the import ore processing fee jumped. The expectation of the consumption peak season had not been fulfilled, and the operating rates of galvanizing and die - casting decreased. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased, but the LME inventory decreased, forming strong support [3]. - Trading Strategies: Operate within a range and short on rallies [3]. Lead - Market Performance: The closing price of the SHFE lead 2509 contract increased by 0.54% compared with the previous trading day. Social inventory decreased slightly [3]. - Fundamentals: The production of recycled lead decreased due to profit losses, and the supply tightened significantly. The consumption peak season was not prosperous, and the social inventory decreased slightly under the situation of weak supply and demand [3]. - Trading Strategies: Operate in a range, buying low and selling high [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main contract showed a narrow - range shock and then a late - session rally. The position decreased, and the warehouse receipt volume increased [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the overall furnace - opening rate increased. Social and warehouse receipt inventories both increased slightly. On the demand side, the operating rate of polysilicon continued to increase, and the production of silicone and the operating rate of aluminum alloy increased slightly [3]. - Trading Strategies: Before the actual implementation of relevant policies, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 8000 - 9000 [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract closed at 71,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4% [3]. - Fundamentals: The price of SMM electrolytic carbon decreased, and the basis weakened. The weekly output increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene and mica both increased. The demand for energy - storage cells exceeded expectations, and the production of lithium iron phosphate increased. It is expected to continue destocking in September [3]. - Trading Strategies: The price is expected to fluctuate between 68,000 - 75,000. From the perspective of investment certainty, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main contract showed a narrow - range shock and then a late - session rally. The position decreased, and the warehouse receipt volume increased [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly output increased slightly, and the industry inventory increased slightly. Downstream wafer and cell production in September was in line with expectations, but the photovoltaic installation demand market in the third quarter was pessimistic [4]. - Trading Strategies: Pay attention to the progress of the state - purchase plan in September. Be cautious about going long on near - month contracts, and pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [4]. 3.3 Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main 2601 contract closed at 3085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamentals: The apparent demand decreased, and the output decreased. The supply and demand of building materials were moderately weak, while the demand for plates was stable. The overall supply and demand of steel products were seasonally weak, with obvious structural differentiation [4]. - Trading Strategies: Hold long positions. The reference range for RB01 is 3050 - 3130 [4]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2601 contract closed at 797.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamentals: Port inventory increased, and iron - water production increased. The supply and demand of iron ore were moderately strong, but the marginal situation weakened. The futures were at a discount, and the valuation was moderately high [4]. - Trading Strategies: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I01 is 775 - 805 [4]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2601 contract closed at 1133.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamentals: Iron - water production increased, but the steel mill's profit margin narrowed. The first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there were still plans for further cuts. The overall inventory level decreased significantly, and the futures were at a premium [4]. - Trading Strategies: Stop loss on short positions. The reference range for JM01 is 1100 - 1160 [4]. 3.4 Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans rose yesterday [6]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term US soybean production decreased, and the long - term South American production was expected to increase. On the demand side, the demand for South American soybeans decreased, and there were concerns about the export demand for new - crop US soybeans [6]. - Trading Strategies: In the short term, US soybeans are in a shock range; the domestic market is also expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the USDA report tonight, and the medium - term trend still depends on tariff policies [6]. Corn - Market Performance: The 2511 contract showed a narrow - range shock, and the spot price in North China accelerated its decline [6]. - Fundamentals: The weak wheat price suppressed the corn price. The auction of imported grains increased market supply, and the low transaction rate reflected weak market sentiment. The new - crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost has decreased significantly, suppressing the long - term price expectation [6]. - Trading Strategies: The futures price is expected to decline in shock due to the pressure of new - crop listing [6]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5547 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09% [6]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, Brazil's sugar production was still high. Domestically, the relaxation of syrup control pressured the market. The short - term fermentation of syrup sentiment has basically ended, and the 01 contract will be below 5700 yuan/ton in the long term [6]. - Trading Strategies: Short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - Market Performance: The overnight US cotton futures price closed flat, and the international crude oil price declined. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price stopped falling and rebounded [6]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, US cotton export sales decreased, and India's cotton ending inventory was raised. Domestically, the cotton production was adjusted upwards, which was in line with market expectations [6]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see, and mainly adopt a range strategy of 13800 - 14500 yuan/ton [6]. Logs - Market Performance: The 11 - contract closed at 804.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 0.25% [6]. - Fundamentals: The 09 - contract was approaching the delivery month, and the position decreased rapidly. The current spot price was stable, and there was no obvious improvement in downstream demand [6]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see [6]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil rose yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the production area was in the seasonal production - increasing cycle. On the demand side, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased. Overall, the near - term inventory continued to accumulate [7]. - Trading Strategies: After the increase in P valuation, the trading difficulty increases, but it is bullish in the medium term. Pay attention to the production in the production area and biodiesel policies [7]. Eggs - Market Performance: The 2511 contract showed a narrow - range shock, and the spot price increased [7]. - Fundamentals: The demand was boosted by the double - festival stocking, but the supply was sufficient. The feed price was low, and the cost center moved down [7]. - Trading Strategies: The spot egg price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Pigs - Market Performance: The 2511 contract showed a narrow - range shock, and the spot price increased slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: As the double festivals approached, consumption gradually recovered, but the supply was abundant. The policy was favorable, and attention should be paid to the recent symposium on pig production capacity regulation [7]. - Trading Strategies: The pig price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Products PVC - Market Performance: The V01 contract closed at 4888, an increase of 0.8% [8]. - Fundamentals: PVC inventory reached a new high, and the price oscillated at the bottom. New production capacity was put into operation, and the supply increased. The upstream operating rate was 78%, and there were maintenance plans in September. The downstream operating rate decreased, and the social inventory increased [8]. - Trading Strategies: The supply and demand are in a weak balance. It is recommended to hedge on rallies [8]. Rubber - Market Performance: The rubber opened with a sharp decline and then rebounded in the afternoon. The RU2601 contract decreased by 0.31% [8]. - Fundamentals: The purchase price of Thai rubber latex and cup lump changed slightly. The spot price decreased slightly. The operating rate of downstream tires increased significantly [8]. - Trading Strategies: After the correction, it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium term [8]. Glass - Market Performance: The FG01 contract closed at 1186, an increase of 0.5% [8]. - Fundamentals: The glass average price was stable, and it entered the seasonal destocking cycle. The supply decreased year - on - year, and there were expectations of production resumption in September and October. The inventory decreased, and the downstream demand improved slightly [8]. - Trading Strategies: It is expected to move up in shock, and it is recommended to go long with a light position [8]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: The oil price declined yesterday due to the IEA monthly report and EIA weekly report, as well as poor US employment data [9]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, OPEC+ plans to increase production, and other countries also have production - increasing potential. On the demand side, the gasoline consumption peak season has ended, and refineries in Europe and the US have entered the autumn maintenance season. There is a risk of global economic slowdown in Q4 [9]. - Trading Strategies: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. Continue to short on rallies, and pay attention to the short - selling opportunity of the SC main contract near 490 yuan/barrel [9]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA01 contract closed at 1287, an increase of 1.2% [9]. - Fundamentals: The soda ash inventory was at a high level, and the supply and demand were in a weak balance. The upstream operating rate was 88%, and it would enter the high - production season in the fourth quarter. The downstream demand improved slightly [9]. - Trading Strategies: The supply and demand are in a weak balance, and there is seasonal improvement in the fourth quarter. The driving force is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Caustic Soda - Market Performance: The SH01 contract closed at 2591, an increase of 0.7% [9]. - Fundamentals: The price in Shandong was stable, and the national average price increased slightly. The supply - side operating rate was high, and the inventory was at a medium level. The non - aluminum demand recovered seasonally [9]. - Trading Strategies: The supply and demand are healthy, and there is seasonal improvement. It is recommended to go long [9].