贵属策略报：美国CPI符合预期，??短线横盘蓄

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On Thursday, precious metal prices remained flat overall, with the market oscillating to gather momentum. The US CPI data announced on Thursday evening met expectations, and the weekly initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, further clearing the obstacles to interest rate cuts. The market did not anticipate a recession. Overnight, the US stock market strengthened again, and the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond exceeded 4%. Gold entered an oscillating accumulation period due to previous anticipatory buying, while silver prices trended slightly stronger [1][4]. - In the short term, dovish expectations still dominate the market, and the center of gravity of gold is expected to maintain an upward trend. The market has fully anticipated a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut this year, but there is still a dispute over the scope of interest rate cuts next year. The report is optimistic about long - term interest rate cuts. The combination of inflationary upside risks and interest rate cuts may push real interest rates further down, which is a real positive for gold fundamentals [4]. - The short - term elasticity of silver is limited, and the weakness of the employment market restrains the overall industrial product elasticity. However, there is no obvious recession expectation yet. The report maintains an expectation of a soft landing for the US fundamentals, and silver prices are expected to follow gold and oscillate upward. The weekly London gold spot price is expected to be in the range of [3500, 3800], and the weekly London silver spot price is expected to be in the range of [39, 45] [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - In August, the US unadjusted CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year (expected 2.9%, previous 2.7%); the seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, previous 0.2%). The unadjusted core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year (expected 3.1%, previous 3.1%); the seasonally adjusted core CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, previous 0.3%) [2]. - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 263,000, soaring to the highest level in nearly four years, far exceeding the expected 235,000. The four - week average was 240,500. As of the week ending August 30, the number of continued jobless claims was 1.939 million [2]. - Russia's central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves as of the week ending September 5 were $698.5 billion, compared with $685.5 billion in the previous period [2]. - The European Central Bank kept the deposit facility rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, all in line with expectations. ECB President Lagarde said that the inflation outlook is more uncertain than usual, and a strong euro may cause inflation to decline more than expected. The economic growth headwinds should subside next year, but higher tariffs, a strong euro, and competition will restrain economic growth [3]. Price Logic - The flat precious metal prices on Thursday were due to the US CPI data meeting expectations and the increase in initial jobless claims, which cleared the way for interest rate cuts. Gold entered an oscillating period after anticipatory buying, and silver trended stronger. The short - term dovish expectations and the long - term optimistic view on interest rate cuts, along with inflation risks, are positive for gold. Silver's short - term elasticity is limited, but it may follow gold's upward trend [1][4][7]. Market Data - On September 11, 2025, the comprehensive index of the China CITIC Futures commodity index was 2227.10, up 0.21%; the commodity 20 index was 2492.81, up 0.20%; the industrial product index was 2235.84, up 0.16% [47]. - The precious metal index on September 11, 2025, was 2894.01, with a daily decline of 0.21%, a 5 - day increase of 1.25%, a 1 - month increase of 6.35%, and a year - to - date increase of 30.81% [49].