股市放量上攻，债市表现分化

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [7] - The investment rating for stock index options is "oscillating" [8] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "oscillating with a slight downward bias" [9] Core Viewpoints - Stock index futures are affected by overseas AI, leading to domestic computing power fluctuations. The market is event - driven, and the second - round upward space is limited. It is recommended to hold long positions in dividend ETF + IM without additional positions [7] - The volatility of the ChiNext and STAR Market ETF options has rebounded. There are two possible market paths, and the current trend strategy for the volatility of the ChiNext and STAR Market is less stable. It is suggested to continue holding volatility strategies [2][8] - Attention should be paid to the issuance of new treasury bonds. The stock - bond seesaw and fund subscription and redemption may continue to affect the bond market, and caution is recommended for long - term bonds [3][11] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened low and closed high with heavy trading volume. The TMT, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and non - bank finance sectors led the gains. Driven by two logics: OpenAI's agreement with Oracle on computing power procurement and the fermentation of pig production capacity regulation events. The CSI 500, with the largest weight of cyclical stocks, increased its positions by 18,900 lots. It is recommended to hold long positions in dividend ETF + IM [7] Stock Index Options - Affected by the strong market, the trading volume of the option market increased by 57%, and the trading volume of IO increased by 93%. The risk preference rebounded, and the trading was concentrated on buying call options to chase the upward trend. There are two possible market paths, and it is recommended to continue holding volatility strategies [2][8] Treasury Bond Futures - Most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures rose. The central bank's net injection of 794 billion yuan loosened the capital. The market expects the central bank to over - renew the 6 - month repurchase. The stock - bond seesaw affected the bond market, and attention should be paid to the issuance of new 2 - year and 7 - year treasury bonds [3][11] 2. Economic Calendar - It includes economic data such as China's export and import annual rates in August, CPI and PPI annual rates in China and the US in August, and M2 money supply annual rate in China in August [12] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The State Council approves a two - year comprehensive reform pilot on the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions. Ant Group emphasizes the balance between exploring the value of token economy and risk prevention. 32 projects are short - listed for the intelligent elderly - care service robot project. The purchase tax for new energy vehicles will be halved from 2026 to 2027 [13][14] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - It includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data content is not fully provided in the text [15][19][31]