中辉期货豆粕日报-20250912

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Views - Short - term Rebound: Bean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have a short - term rebound. However, for bean meal, due to the approaching US soybean harvest and sufficient domestic short - term supply, chasing the upward trend should be treated with caution. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of bean meal, and the outcome of recent China - Canada meetings should be monitored [1][5]. - Short - term Decline and Adjustment: Palm oil and soybean oil are in a short - term decline and adjustment phase. Although the biodiesel policy in the US has encountered obstacles, the biodiesel fundamentals remain unchanged, and opportunities for long positions after the adjustment should be watched for [1]. - Short - term Adjustment: Rapeseed oil is in a short - term adjustment. With high inventory, weak market transactions, and unclear fundamentals, its price mainly fluctuates with competing oils. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada negotiations and the follow - up of US biodiesel policies [1]. - Cautious Bearish: Cotton and red dates are cautiously bearish. Cotton has a supply shortage before the new cotton is fully on the market, but demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" is not ideal. Red dates are expected to have a reduced output in 2025/26, but the reduction is likely to be less than in 2023/24, and there is still pressure considering carry - over inventory [1]. - Cautious Bullish: For live pigs, in the short - term, supply pressure is strong, but in the medium - to long - term, capacity is gradually being reduced. With the recovery of demand, a pattern of both supply and demand booming is expected in the future, and the futures price may rise slightly during the autumn and winter consumption peak [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Bean Meal - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3088 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.72% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3063.14 yuan/ton, down 5.72 yuan or 0.19% [3]. - Inventory Data: As of September 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 966.1 million tons, up 60.5 million tons from last week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 731.7 million tons, up 34.85 million tons or 5.00% from last week. The bean meal inventory was 113.62 million tons, up 5.74 million tons or 5.32% from last week [4]. - Market Outlook: The USDA will release the September supply - demand report on Saturday, with a risk of lower US soybean yield. The fundamentals are temporarily bullish, but with the approaching harvest and sufficient domestic supply, chasing the upward trend should be cautious [1][5]. Rapeseed Meal - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2567 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan or 1.34% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2693.68 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6]. - Inventory Data: As of September 5, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 10.1 million tons, down 2.8 million tons from last week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 1.8 million tons, down 0.7 million tons from last week [8]. - Market Outlook: The China - Canada trade negotiation is ongoing, and the impact of China - Australia rapeseed trade is limited. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of bean meal, and the outcome of recent China - Canada meetings should be watched [1][8]. Palm Oil - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9330 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan or 0.93% from the previous day. The national average price was 9258 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan or - 1.12% from the previous day [9]. - Inventory and Export Data: As of September 5, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 61.93 million tons, up 0.92 million tons or 1.51% from last week. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August increased by 4.18% month - on - month, and the export volume from September 1 - 10 decreased by 1.24% compared to the same period last month [9][10]. - Market Outlook: The US biodiesel policy has encountered obstacles, and palm oil is in a consolidation phase. However, considering the unchanged biodiesel fundamentals, opportunities for long positions after the adjustment should be watched for [1][10]. Cotton - Price Information: The main contract CF2601 of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13835 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price dropped 0.22% to 15260 yuan/ton [11][12]. - Supply and Demand Data: In the US, the non - drought rate in the cotton - growing area dropped to 45%. In Brazil, the expected total cotton output this year is 393.5 million tons. In China, the new cotton is mostly in the boll - opening stage. The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 141.56 million tons. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is not ideal, and the export in August decreased [12][13][14]. - Market Outlook: In the short - term, it is expected to maintain a volatile market. Before the new cotton is fully on the market, the futures price may be supported, but overall, it is cautiously bearish [1][14]. Red Dates - Price Information: The main contract CJ2601 of red dates increased by 2.14% to 11225 yuan/ton [15][17]. - Supply and Demand Data: The main production areas are in the coloring and sugar - increasing stage. The estimated new - season output is 56 - 62 million tons, with a reduction compared to previous years. The market inventory decreased slightly, and the demand is not obvious [17]. - Market Outlook: The output reduction in 2025/26 is certain, but the reduction amplitude is likely to be less than in 2023/24. There is still pressure considering carry - over inventory. It is cautiously bearish, and short - selling opportunities on rallies should be watched for [1][18]. Live Pigs - Price Information: The main contract Lh2511 of live pigs increased by 0.04% to 13320 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price was 13500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.37% [19][20]. - Supply and Demand Data: In September, the planned slaughter volume increased. The number of newborn piglets from January to July increased, and the number of fertile sows decreased slightly. The demand is expected to improve marginally in the future [20]. - Market Outlook: In the short - term, the supply pressure is strong, but in the medium - to long - term, the capacity is gradually being reduced. With the recovery of demand, the futures price may rise slightly during the autumn and winter consumption peak [1][21].