五矿期货贵金属日报-20250912

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The precious metals sector is recommended to maintain a buy-on-dip strategy, with a focus on the upward potential of silver prices [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The slightly higher-than-expected US CPI data and the significant weakening of the US labor market's weekly data have led to an increase in market expectations of the Fed's subsequent marginal easing, providing support for gold and silver prices [2] - The current weakness in the US labor market, combined with significantly moderated inflation data, has led the market to expect the Fed to conduct three interest rate cuts during the remaining policy meetings this year [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On September 12, 2025, Shanghai gold (Au) fell 0.49% to 829.26 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver (Ag) rose 0.84% to 9,886 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.05% to 3,675.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.22% to 42.06 US dollars/ounce; the US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.01%, and the US dollar index was 97.52 [2] - The US 8-month CPI year-on-year was 2.9%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 2.70%; the seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month was 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.30% and the previous value of 0.20%; the unadjusted core CPI year-on-year was 3.1%, and the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month was 0.3%, in line with expectations and the previous value [2] - On the week of September 6, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 263,000, significantly higher than the expected 235,000 and the previous value of 236,000, indicating a significant weakening of the US labor market [3] Market Outlook - Given the current situation, the precious metals sector is advised to maintain a buy-on-dip strategy, with a focus on the upward potential of silver prices. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 809 - 850 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver, it is 9,526 - 11,000 yuan/kilogram [3] Data Comparison - A detailed comparison of various precious metals' closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and other data between September 10 and 11, 2025, is presented, including data from COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, and other markets [6] Price and Volume Charts - Multiple charts show the relationships between precious metals prices, trading volumes, open interests, and other factors, as well as their historical trends and seasonal patterns [8][10][12] Internal and External Price Differences - Statistics on the internal and external price differences of gold and silver on September 11, 2025, are provided, including the price differences between SHFE and COMEX, SGE and LBMA, etc. [51]