五矿期货早报有色金属-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals. With the Fed's high expectation of interest rate cuts, the non - ferrous metals sector has a positive atmosphere. Different metals show different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, inventory changes, and macro - economic factors. Some metals are expected to be strong, while others may face risks or show a range - bound pattern [2][4][5]. Summary by Metal Copper - Market performance: Domestic equity markets strengthened, US inflation data was slightly better than expected, and employment data was weak. Copper prices oscillated upwards. LME copper closed up 0.45% at $10,057/ton, and the main SHFE copper contract closed at 80,490 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory and basis: LME copper inventory decreased by 875 tons to 154,175 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants dropped to 13.5%, and Cash/3M was at a discount of $61.5/ton. In China, electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 0.3 tons, bonded - area inventory declined slightly, SHFE copper warrants increased by 0.1 to 2.0 tons. Shanghai spot premium was 85 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's inventory declined with a reduced spot premium [2]. - Outlook: US employment data was weaker than expected, and the market expected the Fed's dovish stance. Overseas copper mine supply had some disruptions, and domestic copper production decreased marginally. Although consumption was weak, copper prices were expected to remain strong. The reference range for the main SHFE copper contract was 79,600 - 81,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M was $9,920 - 10,150/ton [2]. Aluminum - Market performance: With the decline of domestic aluminum ingot social inventory, the strengthening of the equity market, and the weakening of the US dollar, aluminum prices were strong. LME aluminum closed up 2.17% at $2,679/ton, and the main SHFE aluminum contract closed at 21,005 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory and basis: SHFE aluminum weighted - contract open interest increased by 2.7 to 569,000 lots, and futures warrants increased by 0.1 to 66,000 tons. Domestic mainstream consumption - area aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.2 tons to 473,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.2 tons to 132,500 tons. Aluminum rod processing fees were lowered, and the market's shipping rhythm slowed down. The spot in East China was at par with futures, and downstream buying sentiment increased [4]. - Outlook: The macro - sentiment was generally positive. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the resilience of aluminum product exports provided strong support, while weak domestic terminal demand limited the upside. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and inventory trends. The reference range for the domestic main contract was 20,800 - 21,200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M was $2,640 - 2,700/ton [4]. Lead - Market performance: The SHFE lead index closed up 0.57% at 16,900 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose by $14.5 to $1,991.5/ton [5]. - Inventory and basis: SHFE lead futures inventory was 59,700 tons, and LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 62,800 tons. The lead industry was in a situation of weak supply and demand, with raw material shortages restricting smelter production, and downstream consumption being weaker than in previous years [5]. - Outlook: With high Fed interest - rate cut expectations, there was some support for lead prices. However, if the commodity sentiment weakened and secondary smelting recovered, lead prices faced significant downside risks [5]. Zinc - Market performance: The SHFE zinc index closed up 0.19% at 22,253 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose by $20 to $2,891/ton [7]. - Inventory and basis: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 44,900 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 50,800 tons. Domestic social inventory increased to 154,200 tons. Zinc ore and zinc ingots remained in surplus, with inventory accumulation. The LME market had low warrants after long - term destocking, and the contango widened. The pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets intensified, and the SHFE - LME ratio declined rapidly [7]. - Outlook: With high Fed interest - rate cut expectations, although some institutions and foreign investors were bearish on zinc, the short - term downside was limited, and zinc prices were expected to oscillate at a low level [7]. Tin - Market performance: Tin prices rebounded slightly on Thursday [8]. - Supply and demand: Supply was constrained as Myanmar's tin mine复产 was slow, Yunnan faced a severe shortage of tin ore, and some smelters planned maintenance in September. Demand was in the off - season, with traditional consumption areas being weak, and the increase in AI - related demand being limited. Domestic tin ingot social inventory increased slightly last week [8]. - Outlook: Despite weak off - season demand, the significant short - term supply decline was expected to keep tin prices oscillating in the short term [8]. Nickel - Market performance: Nickel prices oscillated on Thursday [10]. - Market factors: The weak US initial jobless claims data strengthened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Nickel - iron prices were expected to remain stable and slightly strong in the short term due to improved but still low iron - mill profits and the expected increase in stainless - steel production in August and September. The supply of intermediate products was tight, and demand provided some support [10]. - Outlook: The short - term macro - atmosphere was positive, and the long - term support from US easing expectations and domestic policies was expected. It was recommended to buy on dips. The reference range for the SHFE nickel main contract this week was 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M was $14,500 - 16,500/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index remained unchanged at 71,237 yuan. The LC2511 contract closed at 71,000 yuan, up 0.40% [12]. - Supply and demand: This week, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.8% to 19,963 tons, and inventory decreased by 1,580 tons to 138,512 tons. With the peak season approaching, there was a demand for spot stocking [12]. - Outlook: From September to October, domestic lithium carbonate was expected to continue destocking, and there might be structural opportunities in the far - month contracts. The reference range for the GFE lithium carbonate 2511 contract was 68,600 - 72,500 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - Market performance: The alumina index rose by 0.41% to 2,946 yuan/ton on September 11 [14]. - Market factors: The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the overseas FOB price also declined. The import window opened, and futures warrants increased. The supply of overseas ore was improving, and the smelting capacity was in surplus [14]. - Outlook: Short - term advice was to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 was 2,850 - 3,250 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and Fed interest - rate policies [14]. Stainless Steel - Market performance: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,870 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. Spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable, and the social inventory decreased by 3.90% [16]. - Market situation: The stainless - steel spot market oscillated narrowly, with 304 cold - rolled prices stable and 304 hot - rolled prices rising slightly due to tight supply. The overall market trading atmosphere was weak, especially for cold - rolled products [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market performance: The AD2511 contract rose by 0.61% to 20,475 yuan/ton, with increased trading volume [18]. - Market factors: The downstream was transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and there were supply disruptions in scrap aluminum, providing cost support. The exchange lowered the margin ratio, increasing market activity [18]. - Outlook: Cast aluminum alloy prices were expected to remain high in the short term [18].