Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the text. Core Views of the Report - After continuous pre - rise, high - level hot sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, with funds switching between high and low levels and rapid rotation. The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term view is to go long on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [2][3]. - The bond market is expected to be in a short - term shock pattern. Although the central bank maintains a positive attitude towards funds, the rise in market risk preference suppresses bond market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [4][5]. - For the precious metals sector, with the weakening of the US labor market and the easing of inflation data, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year. It is recommended to go long on dips, especially focusing on the upward opportunity of silver prices [6][7]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, most metal prices are affected by factors such as macroeconomic data, supply and demand in the industrial chain, and inventory changes. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions, but generally, the positive macro - atmosphere and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have a certain impact on the sector [9][10][15]. - In the black building materials sector, steel prices may decline if demand cannot be effectively repaired. Iron ore prices are expected to be short - term shock - strong. Glass and soda ash prices are expected to be in a shock pattern, and the prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron are recommended to be observed [25][27][29]. - In the energy chemical sector, different chemical products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed in the short - term, and crude oil is recommended to be long - allocated. Methanol, urea, and other products have corresponding investment suggestions based on their supply - demand and cost situations [37][38][39]. - In the agricultural products sector, the prices of different agricultural products such as live pigs, eggs, and soybean meal are affected by factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and weather. Different trading strategies are proposed for each product [53][54][55]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Category Index Futures - News: The State Council approves a two - year comprehensive reform pilot of factor market allocation in 10 regions. US investors' attention to the Chinese market has reached the highest level since 2021. US CPI data in August slightly exceeded expectations, and traders fully priced in three Fed interest - rate cuts by the end of 2025 [2]. - Basis Ratio: Different basis ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts [3]. - Trading Logic: After the previous rise, high - level hot sectors show divergence, and the short - term index faces adjustment pressure. In the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, and the idea is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market Quotes: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different price changes [4]. - News: The State Council approves a comprehensive reform pilot of factor market allocation, and the Ministry of Commerce promotes the opening up of digital trade. The central bank conducts a net injection of 794 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [4]. - Strategy: The manufacturing PMI in August improved but remained below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a positive attitude towards funds, and the bond market is expected to be in a short - term shock pattern [5]. Precious Metals - Market Quotes: The prices of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver had different changes. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are provided [6]. - Market Outlook: The US CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, and the labor market data was weak. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year. It is recommended to go long on dips, focusing on silver [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - Market Quotes: LME copper and Shanghai copper prices rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased [9]. - Price Outlook: The US employment data is weak, and the Fed is expected to be dovish. Overseas copper mine supply is disturbed, and domestic copper production decreases marginally. Copper prices are expected to be strong [9]. Aluminum - Market Quotes: LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum prices rose. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the demand for aluminum rods decreased [10]. - Price Outlook: The macro - sentiment is positive, and overseas interest - rate cut expectations and aluminum exports support the price. The domestic terminal demand improvement is weak, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and inventory [10]. Zinc - Market Quotes: The Shanghai zinc index and LME zinc prices rose. Zinc ore and zinc ingot inventories increased, and the domestic supply is loose [11]. - Price Outlook: The zinc market is in a situation of internal weakness and external strength. It is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern [11]. Lead - Market Quotes: The Shanghai lead index and LME lead prices rose. The lead industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the domestic inventory decreased slightly [12]. - Price Outlook: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation supports the price, but if the commodity sentiment weakens, the lead price may decline [12]. Nickel - Market Outlook: The US initial jobless claims data strengthens the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Nickel iron prices are expected to be stable and strong, and intermediate product prices are supported. It is recommended to go long on dips [13][15]. Tin - Market Outlook: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and the domestic tin production is expected to decrease in September. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and tin prices are expected to be in a shock pattern [16]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Outlook: The production of carbonate lithium increased this week, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to continue to deplete inventory in the peak season, and there may be structural opportunities. Attention should be paid to market and industrial information [17]. Alumina - Market Quotes: The alumina index rose, and the futures inventory increased. The overseas ore supply is improving, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [18]. Stainless Steel - Market Quotes: The stainless steel futures price decreased slightly, and the spot market was in a narrow - range shock. The 304 hot - rolled steel supply was tight, and the overall market trading atmosphere was weak [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Quotes: The AD2511 contract rose, and the inventory increased. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to remain high [22]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - Market Quotes: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures decreased. The rebar demand is weak, and the hot - rolled coil demand is relatively strong [24][25]. - Price Outlook: If the demand cannot be repaired, steel prices may decline. Attention should be paid to safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [25]. Iron Ore - Market Quotes: The iron ore futures price decreased. The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, and the demand is supported in the short - term. The inventory increased slightly [26][27]. - Price Outlook: Iron ore prices are expected to be short - term shock - strong, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery and de - stocking speed [27]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot price decreased, and the inventory decreased. The glass production increased, but the demand data has not improved significantly. The price adjustment space is limited [28]. - Soda Ash: The spot price increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply is at a high level, and the price is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short - term and may rise in the long - term [29]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - Market Quotes: The prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures had different changes. The market is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, and the short - term trading strategy is to wait and see [30][31]. - Outlook: The black - building materials sector focuses on the verification of real - end demand. Manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to follow the black - sector sentiment [32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The futures price rose slightly. The supply and demand increased in August, and it is expected to be in a shock pattern in September, affected by downstream integration and market sentiment [33][34]. - Polysilicon: The futures price rose. The polysilicon market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" situation, and the price is expected to be in a shock pattern, affected by capacity integration and downstream price - passing [34][35]. Energy Chemical Category Rubber - Market Outlook: NR and RU are in a weak shock. The future rainfall in Thailand is expected to decrease, and there are different views on the rise and fall of rubber prices. The medium - term view is long, and the short - term view is neutral [37][38]. Crude Oil - Market Quotes: The INE crude oil futures price rose, and the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil had different changes. The Singapore oil product inventory decreased [39]. - Outlook: It is believed that OPEC's production increase is a pressure test. The oil price is underestimated, and it is recommended to long - allocate crude oil [39]. Methanol - Market Outlook: The methanol futures price decreased. The port inventory is high, but the supply is sufficient, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the 1 - 5 positive spread [40]. Urea - Market Outlook: The urea futures price rose slightly. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to go long on dips [41]. Styrene - Market Outlook: The spot price is unchanged, and the futures price rose. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread on dips [42]. PVC - Market Outlook: The PVC futures price rose. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is weak. It is recommended to short - allocate on highs, but beware of the "anti - involution" sentiment [45]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Outlook: The EG01 contract price decreased. The supply is high, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium - term. The valuation is high in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [46]. PTA - Market Outlook: The PTA01 contract price decreased. The supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the demand is improving. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [47]. p - Xylene - Market Outlook: The PX11 contract price rose. The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA load is low. The valuation is neutral - low, and it is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [48][49]. Polyethylene - Market Outlook: The polyethylene futures price decreased. The cost is supported, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. The price is expected to rise in a shock [50]. Polypropylene - Market Outlook: The polypropylene futures price decreased. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is rebounding seasonally. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [51]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - Market Outlook: The domestic pig price is in a bottom - grinding state, with potential support factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - level rebound and short - sell after the rebound [53]. Eggs - Market Outlook: The egg price mostly rose. The supply pressure is decreasing, and it is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long positions after the price decline [54]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Important Information: The US soybean price rose slightly, and the domestic soybean meal market is affected by high inventory. The soybean优良率 may decline, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [55]. - Trading Strategy: The soybean import cost is weak - stable. It is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range of soybean meal [56]. Oils and Fats - Important Information: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production decreased. The import price of domestic palm oil is inverted. The domestic oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors [57]. - Trading Strategy: The oil and fat market is expected to be shock - strong in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price decline [58][59]. Sugar - Market Outlook: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The domestic and foreign sugar markets are bearish, and the sugar price is expected to decline, depending on the Brazilian production [60][61]. Cotton - Market Outlook: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price is in a shock. The downstream consumption is general, and the new - year production is expected to be high. The inventory is low, and the short - term cotton price is expected to be in a shock [62][63].
五矿期货文字早评-20250912
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-12 02:58