工业硅、多晶硅日评：高位整理-20250912

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market's supply is increasing steadily, with some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang resuming production and the southwest region's enterprises increasing their operations due to lower power costs. The demand side is mixed, with polysilicon enterprises reducing production but some having复产 plans, organic silicon facing supply and demand changes, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises buying on - demand. The industrial silicon price is expected to remain high in the short - term but may fall if polysilicon enterprises cut production [1]. - The polysilicon market has a slightly increasing supply with some new capacity and reduced production offsetting each other. The demand has increased with more transactions and lower inventory, but the terminal demand pressure and component price resistance may lead to a reverse price transmission. The polysilicon price is in high - level consolidation, and the upward pressure on the spot price is large [1]. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Price Changes - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 0.56% to 9,000 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) increased by 1.06% to 9,500 yuan/ton. The futures main contract's closing price rose by 0.87% to 8,740 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: With the rising silicon price, some silicon plants in Xinjiang resumed production, and the southwest region's enterprises increased operations due to lower power costs during the wet season [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises are reducing production, but some have复产 plans; an organic silicon plant had an accident and stopped production, but monomer plants are recovering; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises buy on - demand [1]. Investment Strategy - The industrial silicon price is expected to remain high in the short - term but may fall if polysilicon enterprises cut production. The trading strategy is to operate in a range, try to go long on dips, and consider the 2511 and 2512 reverse arbitrage [1]. Polysilicon Price Changes - N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon prices remained unchanged. The futures main contract's closing price rose by 1.56% to 53,710 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Silicon material enterprises are reducing production, but some new capacity may be put into use, with an expected slight increase in production [1]. - Demand: The trading volume increased, inventory decreased, but the terminal demand pressure and component price resistance may lead to reverse price transmission [1]. Investment Strategy - The polysilicon price is in high - level consolidation, and the upward pressure on the spot price is large. The trading strategy is to take profit on previous long positions and try to go long on dips before the supply - side reform policy is implemented [1]. Industry News - In August, the production and sales of automobiles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The production was 2.815 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and a year - on - year increase of 13%. The sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 10.1% and a year - on - year increase of 16.4% [1]. - On September 10, the State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Company issued a notice on the market - oriented reform of new energy on - grid electricity prices. From January 2026, the on - grid electricity of new energy projects will enter the power market [1].