交银国际每日晨报-20250912

Group 1: Technology Sector Insights - The technology sector saw strong growth in August, with A-shares performing the best. Despite a recent market pullback, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks recorded strong growth in September, driven by continued liquidity easing and AI-focused tech stocks leading the rally [1][2] - Storage prices are expected to remain strong, with NAND and DRAM products continuing their upward price trend. DRAM prices are anticipated to stay robust until the first half of 2026, while NAND prices are expected to hold firm until the first quarter of 2026 [1] - The import value of semiconductor equipment grew rapidly in July, and domestic semiconductor manufacturing investments remain high. The forecast for China's semiconductor equipment sales in 2025 has been raised to $52 billion, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Companies - TSMC reported over 30% revenue growth in August, with strong expectations for its 2nm technology in the second half of the year and the 16A technology next year, which is expected to drive rapid growth in AI-related revenues [2] - Oracle's future contract revenue is projected to increase by $317 billion, with accelerated investments in artificial intelligence. Oracle's stock rose by 36% as a reflection of the ongoing global demand for AI computing power [2] - Investment recommendations favor leading global semiconductor companies focused on AI computing, storage, and communication, although current valuations for top tech stocks are considered high [2] Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market remains in a seasonal lull, with the top 100 developers' total sales in August declining by 4% month-on-month to 220.2 billion yuan. However, sales from 20 major listed developers increased by 14.2% month-on-month, driven by strong performances from certain companies [3][5] - Policies aimed at stimulating market activity, such as expanding the use of housing provident funds and easing purchase restrictions, are expected to enhance market vitality [3] - A traditional peak marketing season is anticipated in September, which may lead to a temporary rebound in market activity [3] Group 4: Economic Data and Market Performance - The consumer price index and industrial product price index data for the U.S. and China are being closely monitored, with expectations for various economic indicators to be released [6] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,086.32, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 26.56% [4] - Key commodity prices show fluctuations, with Brent crude oil at $67.49, down 9.51% year-to-date, while gold prices have risen by 38.58% [4]