光大期货金融期货日报-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is "bullish" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market showed a "narrowing" trend since August, with high trading congestion in some themes. Short - term corrections are normal due to factors like profit - taking. In the long run, the dovish stance of the Fed and expected multiple interest rate cuts this year benefit the A - share market. Policy adjustments in Shanghai's housing market and the implementation of the parenting subsidy system are expected to boost the economy. The liquidity - driven market is likely to continue with obvious structural features and faster sector rotation [1] - For treasury bonds, in September, the risk of significant fluctuations in the capital market is low, and short - term bonds are relatively stable. With the improvement of the competitive environment and the stronger stock market, long - term bonds will see greater fluctuations [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The market rose strongly throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index both rising over 5%. More than 4,200 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets were up, and the trading volume was 2.46 trillion yuan. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.36%, and the ChiNext Index rose 5.15% [1] 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The 30 - year main contract of treasury bond futures fell 0.11%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.07%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.14%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.06%. The central bank conducted 292 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. The net investment was 7.94 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of DR001 increased by 6bp to 1.37%, and that of DR007 increased by 0.5bp to 1.48% [1][2] 3.2 Daily Price Changes 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - On September 11, 2025, compared with September 10, 2025, IH rose 52.4 points (1.78%), IF rose 129.6 points (2.92%), IC rose 261.2 points (3.81%), and IM rose 236.8 points (3.31%) [3] 3.2.2 Stock Indexes - On September 11, 2025, compared with September 10, 2025, the Shanghai 50 Index rose 43.5 points (1.48%), the CSI 300 Index rose 102.7 points (2.31%), the CSI 500 Index rose 190.6 points (2.75%), and the CSI 1000 Index rose 169.7 points (2.35%) [3] 3.2.3 Treasury Bond Futures - On September 11, 2025, compared with September 10, 2025, TS rose 0.06 points (0.06%), TF rose 0.165 points (0.16%), T rose 0.09 points (0.08%), and TL fell 0.02 points (- 0.02%) [3] 3.3 Market News - The State Council has approved the implementation of 10 pilot projects for comprehensive reform of factor market allocation in Beijing Sub - center, key cities in southern Jiangsu, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Hefei Metropolitan Area, Fuzhou, Xiamen, Quanzhou, Zhengzhou, Changsha, Zhuzhou, Xiangtan, nine mainland cities in the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area, Chongqing, and Chengdu for a period of two years starting from the date of approval [5] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, the trends of their monthly basis, etc [7][8][10] 3.4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][19] 3.4.3 Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies such as the euro, pound, and yen against the US dollar [23][24][27]