金融期货早班车-20250912

Group 1: Market Performance - On September 11, the four major A - share stock indices all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.65% to 3875.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.36% to 12979.89 points, the ChiNext Index rose 5.15% to 3053.75 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 5.32% to 1326.03 points. Market trading volume was 24,646 billion yuan, an increase of 4,606 billion yuan from the previous day. [2] - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+7.39%), electronics (+5.96%), and computer (+3.71%) led the gains; textile and apparel (+0.14%), petroleum and petrochemical (+0.2%), and social services (+0.22%) led the declines. In terms of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4,220/161/1,045 respectively. [2] - Net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 260, - 157, - 248, and 145 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +215, - 99, - 180, and +64 billion yuan respectively. [2] Group 2: Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 73.89, 49.71, - 6.37, and - 5.52 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were - 11.89%, - 8.31%, 1.67%, and 2.2% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 27%, 23%, 76%, and 75% respectively. [2] - In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips. In the short term, the market shows signs of cooling. [2] Group 3: Treasury Bond Futures - On September 11, the yields of most treasury bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond was 1.376, a decrease of 3.85 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond was 1.605, a decrease of 3.47 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year treasury bond was 1.798, a decrease of 2.13 bps; the implied interest rate of the thirty - year treasury bond was 2.203, an increase of 0.2 bps. [2] - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 1.25 bps, corresponding to a net basis of - 0.029 and an IRR of 1.59%; the CTD bond of the five - year treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of - 3.5 bps, corresponding to a net basis of 0.055 and an IRR of 1.27%; the CTD bond of the ten - year treasury bond futures was 220017.IB, with a yield change of - 1.5 bps, corresponding to a net basis of 0.149 and an IRR of 0.93%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, corresponding to a net basis of - 0.06 and an IRR of 1.67%. [2] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 2920 billion yuan and withdrew 2126 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 794 billion yuan. [2] - With the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge on rallies for the medium - to - long term for T and TL. [2] Group 4: Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recent social activities and infrastructure construction have weak prosperity. [9]