美国8月CPI数据点评：通胀反弹，但无碍降息

Inflation Overview - In August 2025, the overall CPI in the U.S. increased by 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[5] - Core CPI remained stable, also increasing by 3.1% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous value and meeting market expectations[5] Inflation Drivers - The rise in overall inflation was primarily driven by increases in food and energy prices, with food CPI contributing 0.06 percentage points and energy CPI contributing 0.05 percentage points to the overall CPI increase[8] - Core goods CPI saw a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, indicating rising inflationary pressure due to tariffs, particularly in clothing and automotive sectors[8] Housing and Services - Housing CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, contributing 0.14 percentage points to the overall CPI, while core services CPI growth was limited, indicating moderate inflationary pressure in this sector[8] - The rental index suggests that housing inflation may trend downward in the coming months, limiting core service inflation pressure[8] Monetary Policy Outlook - The current economic indicators suggest a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September 2025, with further cuts likely in October and December depending on employment data[8] - Market expectations for rate cuts have strengthened, with probabilities for October and December rate cuts increasing by 10.9% and 13.5% respectively following the CPI release[8] Risks - There is a risk of inflation exceeding expectations due to the recent implementation of tariffs, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding future rate cuts[43]