Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The steel market presents a complex situation with different trends for different steel products. The supply - demand contradiction in rebar is accumulating, while that in hot - rolled coils is alleviating. The overall steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamentals' contradictions are still building up. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Demand - Rebar apparent demand is 1.9807 million tons (-4), a year - on - year decrease of 20.76%. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand is 3.2616 million tons (+20.8), a year - on - year increase of 3.23%. The apparent demand for the five major steel products is 8.4333 million tons (+15.5), a year - on - year increase of 1.87%. [4] Supply - Rebar production is 2.1193 million tons (-6.75), a year - on - year decrease of 3.09%. Hot - rolled coil production is 3.2514 million tons (+10.9), a year - on - year increase of 3.47%. The production of the five major steel products is 8.6724 million tons (-3.41), a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. [4] Inventory - Rebar inventory is 6.5386 million tons (+13.86), a year - on - year increase of 2.17%. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 3.7332 million tons (-1.02), a year - on - year decrease of 0.27%. The inventory of the five major steel products is 15.1461 million tons (+13.91), a year - on - year increase of 0.93%. [4] Market Analysis - For rebar, due to high profits and the operation of electric - arc furnace profits, some mills stopped production, and the decline in rebar production has widened this week. Rebar demand decreased month - on - month, and the peak - season characteristics have not yet appeared. The supply - demand contradiction continues to accumulate, especially in Hangzhou where the inventory pressure is more obvious due to the inflow of external rebar resources. - For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand have returned to the level before the military parade. The downstream sentiment has improved, and the inventory shows a de - stocking trend, with the supply - demand contradiction gradually alleviating. - For the five major steel products, the inventory is still accumulating, but the inventory - building speed has slowed down. The steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradictions are still building up, with the rebar fundamentals being weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is still uncertain about the peak - season demand level. However, since the hot - metal production has returned to a relatively high level before the military parade, the probability of negative feedback is limited. There may be phased replenishment demand before the weekend, which may support the futures prices, but it is expected that the performance of rebar will still be weaker than that of hot - rolled coils. [4]
钢材周度供需数据解读-20250912
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-12 04:54