天胶短期下方支撑偏强
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-12 05:11
- Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating [5] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [6] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating weakly [7] - Hogs: Oscillating [9] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating strongly in the short - term [13] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [14] - Cotton: Oscillating strongly in the short - term [15] - Sugar: Oscillating [17] - Pulp: Oscillating [19] - Double - offset Paper: Oscillating [20] - Logs: Oscillating [23] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It points out that different products face various supply - demand situations, affected by factors such as weather, policies, and international trade. For example, natural rubber has strong short - term support; oils and fats may rise again later; corn shows a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern; hog prices are oscillating at a low level in the short - term but may strengthen in 2026 due to de - capacity policies. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - Oils and Fats: Before the USDA report, the market is volatile. Factors such as the drought in the US soybean - growing areas, the inventory situation of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the inventory and trade policies of rapeseed oil in China affect the market. In the future, the probability of price increase is high [5]. - Protein Meal: Internationally, factors like the possible reduction of US soybean yield and the change of South American soybean planting area need attention. Domestically, the supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to be stable or increase slightly. The market is expected to oscillate in the range [6]. - Corn and Starch: The price shows regional differentiation. In the short - term, the supply is tight, and there is a tail - end rally. In the fourth quarter, the selling pressure will appear. In the long - term, the price is not pessimistic, showing a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern [8]. - Hogs: The supply is abundant in the short - and medium - term, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The "anti - involution" policy may drive the price to strengthen in 2026 [9]. - Natural Rubber: The short - term fundamental support is strong, and there are many speculative themes. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [13]. - Synthetic Rubber: It follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the cost of raw material butadiene. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [14]. - Cotton: The domestic market has low inventory and improved demand marginally. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and short - term long positions can be tried [15]. - Sugar: In the new season, the global sugar supply is expected to be abundant, and the price has a downward drive in the long - term. In the short - term, it rebounds after stopping the decline [17]. - Pulp: After continuous decline, it rebounds. The internal contradictions are differentiated, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Double - offset Paper: The market lacks clear upward or downward drivers, and the price is expected to oscillate around the listing price. Unilateral strategies can consider the 4000 - 4500 range [20]. - Logs: The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [23]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and logs, but no specific data details are provided in the given text. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides rating standards, including definitions of ratings such as "strong", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "weakly", and time periods and calculation methods for standard deviations [177].